The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

Judge as of 2023, the horizon of his 2018 five-year predictions. The claim means that the widely discussed crisis (a split, collapse or lasting electoral marginalisation of the GOP) did not materialise. True: by 2023 the Republican Party had not split, no significant rival party had formed from it, and it remained one of the two major parties, competitive nationally and holding substantial federal and state power. Mostly true: the same, but with notable internal turmoil (such as leadership fights or a contested speakership) that did not threaten its major-party status. Mixed: the party remained intact but suffered a serious, sustained electoral decline or a partial institutional fracture. Mostly false: a significant faction broke away, or the party was reduced to clear minority status across federal institutions for several cycles. False: the party split, collapsed or was supplanted.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 How the Republican Party broke into pieces EL PAÍS English (USA Edition) · 8 October 2023

   “Last week’s spectacle in which the U.S. House of Representatives ousted its speaker for the first time in 234 years — thanks to an alliance between the Democrats and eight far-right Republicans — did not only merit the much-used adjective of “historic,” it also reconfirmed the fracture of the conservative movement in the United States.”

2. E2 Congress in 2023 was a wild ride. McCarthy's ouster, Santos' expulsion and other key moments ABC News · 28 December 2023

   “After three weeks of intraparty fighting, Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson emerged victorious and became the next House speaker.”

3. E3 Congress in 2023 was a wild ride. McCarthy's ouster, Santos' expulsion and other key moments ABC News · 28 December 2023

   “The final vote on Oct. 3 was 216-210, with eight Republicans joining Democrats in stripping McCarthy of his title.”

4. E4 How the Republican Party broke into pieces EL PAÍS English (USA Edition) · 8 October 2023

   “A victory for Jordan would show that Trumpism has well and truly taken over Lincoln’s party and all but guarantee a legislative paralysis on Capitol Hill, where Democrats control the Senate.”

The 2023 evidence shows Republicans held the House speakership. McCarthy was ousted by eight Republicans voting with Democrats (E3), and after three weeks of fighting within the party Republican Mike Johnson was elected speaker (E2). That means the party still held substantial federal power and remained a major, nationally competitive party. E1 and E4 describe a "fracture" and possible legislative paralysis, but neither reports a split, a breakaway party or a collapse. This matches the "mostly true" criterion: notable internal turmoil, including a contested speakership, that did not threaten the party's major-party status.