ClaimsRodney Brooks

“I think we are a long way off from being able to for-real deploy humanoid robots which have even minimal performance to be useable and even further off from ones that have enough ROI for people want to use them for anything beyond marketing the forward thinking outlook of the buyer.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2025 Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction Technology

Brooks thinks humanoid robots with even minimal useable performance are a long way from real deployment, and further still from having enough ROI for people to use them for anything beyond marketing.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Vague prediction with no deadline ('a long way').

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Brooks thinks humanoid robots with even minimal useable performance are a long way from real deployment, and further still from having enough ROI for people to use them for anything beyond marketing.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_fa33d75146e5, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fa33d75146e5

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

    Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.