ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2026 Predictions Scorecard, 2026 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction Other

The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

True: Artemis II (the crewed lunar flyby) launched on or before 2026-02-28. A launch earlier than February counts. Mostly true: does not apply, since this is a single dated outcome. Mostly false: Artemis II launched between 2026-03-01 and 2026-04-30. False: Artemis II launched after 2026-04-30, or dated NASA statements show it had not launched by then.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Artemis II Mission Milestones: An Image and Video Recap - NASA NASA · 21 April 2026

    “On April 1, 2026, Artemis II launched on a nearly 10-day voyage around the Moon, marking the first crewed flight of NASA’s Orion spacecraft.”

Reasoning

NASA's mission recap (E1) says Artemis II launched on April 1, 2026, which is after the 2026-02-28 deadline. The criteria set out a "mostly false" band for a launch between 2026-03-01 and 2026-04-30, and April 1 falls inside it. Artemis II launched on April 1, 2026 [E1], so the assessment that things were looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026 resolves mostly false under the criteria.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.” (said 1 January 2026). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_706b774c85ee, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_706b774c85ee

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  3. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

    If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.