Prediction Economics and markets

Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The claim gives no date, so 'imminent' is read as within about one month of the statement, i.e. by 2025-01-31. A liftoff on New Glenn's first orbital launch attempt counts as the launch, whether or not the mission succeeded; scrubs and countdowns without liftoff do not. True: New Glenn's first launch lifted off on or before 2025-01-31. Mostly true: does not apply, since this is a single dated outcome. Mostly false: the first launch lifted off between 2025-02-01 and 2025-03-31. False: the first launch lifted off after 2025-03-31, or dated reports show it had still not launched by then.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

E1 Blue Origin’s New Glenn Reaches Orbit | Blue Origin Blue Origin · 16 January 2025

“New Glenn safely reached its intended orbit during today's NG-1 mission, accomplishing our primary objective.”
E2 Blue Origin’s New Glenn Reaches Orbit | Blue Origin Blue Origin · 16 January 2025

“New Glenn’s seven BE-4 engines ignited on January 16, 2025, at 2:03 a.m. EST (0703 UTC) from Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station.”
E3 Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin launches massive New Glenn rocket into orbit on 1st flight (video) Space.com · 16 January 2025

“New Glenn launched for the first time ever this morning (Jan. 16), rising off a pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station here on Florida's Space Coast at 2:03 a.m. EST (0703 GMT).”

Reasoning

Space.com reports that New Glenn launched for the first time on January 16, 2025, lifting off from Cape Canaveral at 2:03 a.m. EST (E3). Blue Origin's NG-1 mission release gives the same ignition date and time and says the vehicle reached orbit (E1, E2). The first launch therefore lifted off before the 2025-01-31 cutoff in the criteria.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b34c7a08f260, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b34c7a08f260

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2023

“If electric sales continue to grow at 68% per year then 2025 would hit 28% of new cars in the US being electric.”

If US electric vehicle sales keep growing at 68% per year, electric cars would be 28% of new US car sales in 2025.
Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026

“Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.
Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024

“Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.
Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023

“I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.
Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020

“We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.