There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

Judged at end of 2020. True: no vehicle meeting SAE Level 5 (driverless in all conditions, with no limit on operational design domain) was operating on public roads at any point in 2020. Operation of Level 4 vehicles in geofenced areas (e.g. Waymo in Phoenix) does not count against the claim. False: a vehicle certified or credibly shown to be SAE Level 5 was operating on public roads in 2020. Mostly false: a vehicle widely and credibly recognised as Level 5, though not formally certified, was operating on public roads in 2020.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Cars IEEE Spectrum · 22 April 2020

   “Now, Isaac says, many companies have turned their immediate attention away from developing fully autonomous Level 5 vehicles, which can operate in any conditions.”

2. E2 Surprise! 2020 Is Not the Year for Self-Driving Cars IEEE Spectrum · 22 April 2020

   “Instead, the companies are focused on Level 4 automation, which refers to fully automated vehicles that operate within very specific geographical areas or weather conditions.”

3. E3 Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix Waymo · 8 October 2020

   “and for the last year, has pioneered fully driverless, paid rides on high-speed roads across a service area larger than the city of San Francisco.”

4. E4 Technopuff of Broken Promises: An Elon Musk Timeline flyingpenguin.com · 14 August 2026

   “In letters of November 20 and December 14, 2020, Tesla’s counsel told the California DMV that FSD “will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature” and that no planned enhancement would make the cars autonomous”

IEEE Spectrum reported in April 2020 that many companies had turned their immediate attention away from developing Level 5 vehicles, which can operate in any conditions, and were focused on Level 4 automation within specific geographical areas or weather conditions instead (E1, E2). Waymo's October 2020 driverless service ran in a defined Phoenix service area (E3), which is the Level 4 case the criteria say does not count against the claim. In letters dated November and December 2020, Tesla told the California DMV that FSD would remain an SAE Level 2 feature (E4). None of the evidence shows a Level 5 vehicle on public roads in 2020, so the prediction resolves true.