ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2024 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction Technology

After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is judged as a forecast that Starliner would fly a crewed mission about once a year after its first crewed test flight, tested over the first full year after that flight (calendar 2025). True: the crewed test flight took place in 2024 and at least one more crewed Starliner flight launched in calendar 2025. Mostly true: the same holds, but the test flight took place in a month of 2024 other than April. Mostly false: the next crewed Starliner flight launched after 2025 but by the end of 2026. False: no crewed Starliner flight launched in 2025, as shown by NASA's flight schedule or reports that missions were delayed or turned into uncrewed or cargo flights, and none launched by the end of 2026 either.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 NASA Releases Report on Starliner Crewed Flight Test Investigation - NASA NASA · 19 February 2026

    “Starliner launched June 5, 2024, on its first crewed test flight to the International Space Station.”
  2. E2 NASA, Boeing Modify Commercial Crew Contract - NASA NASA · 24 November 2025

    “NASA and Boeing are targeting no earlier than April 2026 to fly the uncrewed Starliner-1 pending completion of rigorous test, certification, and mission readiness activities.”
  3. E3 Next Crewed Boeing Starliner Flight Not Until 2028 SpacePolicyOnline · 28 September 2026

    “Isaacman said Starliner-1 will launch no earlier than December of this year and Starliner-2 not until 2028.”
  4. E4 NASA cuts missions for Boeing Starliner contract, next flight will have no crew Orlando Sentinel · 24 November 2025

    “The next trip to space for Boeing’s beleaguered Starliner spacecraft won’t have a crew on board after NASA announced changes to the commercial crew contract that also slashes the total number of missions to the International Space Station.”

Reasoning

NASA confirms the first crewed Starliner test flight launched on June 5, 2024 (E1). In November 2025, NASA and press reports said the next Starliner flight, Starliner-1, would carry no crew and was targeted no earlier than April 2026 (E2, E4), so no crewed Starliner flight launched in 2025. In September 2026, Isaacman said Starliner-1 would launch no earlier than December 2026 and Starliner-2 not until 2028 (E3); with the next flight planned as uncrewed (E2, E4), this leaves no crewed flight expected by the end of 2026.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.” (said 1 January 2024). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_94d089236ec2, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_94d089236ec2

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

    Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

All of them

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