ClaimsRodney Brooks

“I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2023 Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

True: no crewed lunar landing (Artemis III or another landing) took place in 2025, and NASA, GAO or NASA OIG documents say that Starship Human Landing System (HLS) readiness was a reason, in whole or in part, for the landing slipping past 2025. Mostly true: no landing took place in 2025 and Starship HLS was not ready (e.g. had not done its required uncrewed demo landing or orbital propellant transfer), but official accounts give other factors (spacesuits, Orion, SLS, budget) as the main cause of the delay. Mostly false: the landing slipped past 2025 and official accounts attribute it entirely to other factors, with Starship described as on track. False: astronauts landed on the Moon using Starship in 2025.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts NASA Office of Inspector General · 10 March 2026

    “Then in December 2024, NASA announced that it would push the launch date for Artemis III to no later than June 2027, effectively extending Starship’s delivery time frame by an additional 9 months.”
  2. E2 NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts NASA Office of Inspector General · 10 March 2026

    “In fall 2025, SpaceX notified the HLS Program that they would potentially not be able to meet the Artemis III planned launch date of June 2027.”
  3. E3 NASA's Management of the Human Landing System Contracts NASA Office of Inspector General · 10 March 2026

    “As discussed earlier, cost increases to the SpaceX contract have been driven in part by interface requirements changes from the other Artemis systems.”
  4. E4 SpaceX to Tell NASA the Moon Will Have to Wait Gizmodo · 17 November 2025

    “SpaceX has fallen behind in developing a crewed lunar lander for NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, prompting the agency to reopen the contract to other providers.”

Reasoning

The NASA OIG report says that in December 2024 NASA moved Artemis III to no later than June 2027, so no crewed lunar landing took place in 2025 (E1). The same report says SpaceX told the HLS Program in fall 2025 that it might not meet even the June 2027 date (E2), and Gizmodo reported in November 2025 that SpaceX had fallen behind on the Artemis 3 lander (E4). Together these show Starship HLS was not ready in 2025. However, none of the quoted official passages names Starship readiness as a reason the landing slipped past 2025: E1 only describes the delay as giving Starship more time. That fits "mostly true" rather than "true."

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.” (said 1 January 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_20436cae5d90, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_20436cae5d90

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

    Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.