ClaimsRodney Brooks

“The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

Rodney Brooks, blogger 1 January 2018 My Dated Predictions (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

True: no crewed Falcon Heavy flight carrying two paying customers around the Moon took place between 2018-10-01 and 2018-12-31, as shown by the 2018 Falcon Heavy flight record or by reports that the plan was dropped or postponed. Mostly true, mixed and mostly false do not apply. False: such a flight took place in Q4 2018.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 SpaceX Won't Launch Tourists Around the Moon This Year Space.com · 6 June 2018

    “But that timetable has now slipped to at least the middle of 2019, and possibly later, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday (June 3).”
  2. E2 SpaceX Forced To Delay Plans For First Space Tourism Launch - BGR BGR · 6 June 2018

    “All of this points to the sightseeing trip taking place no earlier than mid-2019, and possibly much later depending on how well things go with Dragon 2 and the BFR.”
  3. E3 Elon Musk unveils first tourist for SpaceX 'Moon loop' BBC News · 18 September 2018

    “But in February this year, Mr Musk said SpaceX would concentrate on the BFR for future crewed missions.”
  4. E4 Rocket Launches in 2018 - Launch History | Flight Atlas Flight Atlas

    “2018-02-06 | Falcon Heavy | Demo Flight 1 (Maiden Flight) | SpaceX | Success”

Reasoning

In June 2018, independent reports (E1, E2) said SpaceX's tourist trip around the Moon had slipped to at least mid-2019. E3 reports that in February 2018 Mr Musk said SpaceX would concentrate on the BFR for future crewed missions. The 2018 launch log (E4) lists the February 2018 Falcon Heavy demo flight. This means no crewed lunar loop on a Falcon Heavy took place in Q4 2018.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cd7c88fd13d1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cd7c88fd13d1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  4. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.