Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
True: no crewed Falcon Heavy flight carrying two paying customers around the Moon took place between 2018-10-01 and 2018-12-31, as shown by the 2018 Falcon Heavy flight record or by reports that the plan was dropped or postponed. Mostly true, mixed and mostly false do not apply. False: such a flight took place in Q4 2018.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 SpaceX Won't Launch Tourists Around the Moon This Year Space.com · 6 June 2018
“But that timetable has now slipped to at least the middle of 2019, and possibly later, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday (June 3).”
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E2 SpaceX Forced To Delay Plans For First Space Tourism Launch - BGR BGR · 6 June 2018
“All of this points to the sightseeing trip taking place no earlier than mid-2019, and possibly much later depending on how well things go with Dragon 2 and the BFR.”
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E3 Elon Musk unveils first tourist for SpaceX 'Moon loop' BBC News · 18 September 2018
“But in February this year, Mr Musk said SpaceX would concentrate on the BFR for future crewed missions.”
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E4 Rocket Launches in 2018 - Launch History | Flight Atlas Flight Atlas
“2018-02-06 | Falcon Heavy | Demo Flight 1 (Maiden Flight) | SpaceX | Success”
Reasoning
In June 2018, independent reports (E1, E2) said SpaceX's tourist trip around the Moon had slipped to at least mid-2019. E3 reports that in February 2018 Mr Musk said SpaceX would concentrate on the BFR for future crewed missions. The 2018 launch log (E4) lists the February 2018 Falcon Heavy demo flight. This means no crewed lunar loop on a Falcon Heavy took place in Q4 2018.
Cite this claim
Rodney Brooks, “Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_cd7c88fd13d1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_cd7c88fd13d1
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks
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Resolved false
“Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”
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Mostly true
“I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”
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Resolved true
“We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”
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Mostly false
“Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”
The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.
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Resolved true
“Launch seems imminent.”
Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.