ClaimsScott Alexander

“US unemployment to be lower at end of year than beginning: 50%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Use the official BLS headline unemployment rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted). Compare the rate for December 2016 (end of year) with the rate for the start of 2016: the January 2016 figure, or the December 2015 figure if that is taken as the beginning. True: the December 2016 rate is lower than the start-of-year rate on both comparisons, or on the one comparison that applies if they agree. Mostly true: lower on one comparison, and equal on the other. Mixed: lower on one comparison and higher on the other. False: the December 2016 rate is equal to or higher than the start-of-year rate on both comparisons. Use the current BLS figures, including later revisions.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (6)

  1. E1 Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 6 January 2017

    “Turning to measures from the survey of households, both the unemployment rate, at 4.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.5 million, were little changed in December.”

  2. E2 CPS Home U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    “Dec 2016 4.7 4.4 4.3 14.9 4.2 8.0 2.7 5.8”

  3. E3 CPS Home U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    “Jan 2016 4.8 4.3 4.5 15.9 4.2 8.5 3.6 5.9”

  4. E4 CPS Home U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    “Dec 2015 5.0 4.6 4.5 16.2 4.4 8.5 4.1 6.2”

  5. E5 Employment Situation News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 6 January 2017

    “| U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate) | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.7 |”

  6. E6 Employment Situation News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 6 January 2017

    “was little changed at 4.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”

Reasoning

BLS reported the December 2016 unemployment rate as 4.7 percent [E1][E8]. However, the quoted start-of-year figures (4.8 for January 2016 and 5.0 for December 2015) have no column headings [E3][E4][E7]. The evidence therefore does not show that these are the seasonally adjusted headline U-3 rate the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ef15c78ca52f, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ef15c78ca52f

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved false Prediction January 2018
    “Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

    Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

    Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.