ClaimsScott Alexander

“I expect Ukraine and Russia to figure out some unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Prediction Other

Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_ee28e45298ef, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ee28e45298ef

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.