ClaimsRodney Brooks

“The return to the Lunar surface is going to be significantly delayed, and revenue producing flights of Starship are going to be way behind schedule.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2024 Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction Technology

The return to the Lunar surface will be significantly delayed, and revenue-producing Starship flights will be well behind schedule.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

'Significantly delayed' and 'well behind schedule' have no defined benchmark or horizon, so they cannot be tested.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “The return to the Lunar surface will be significantly delayed, and revenue-producing Starship flights will be well behind schedule.” (said 1 January 2024). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_ea7350ec080b, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ea7350ec080b

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

    Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

All of them

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