ClaimsScott Alexander

“Hillary Clinton will win the Presidency: 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 2016 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The claim is judged on its outcome, the 2016 US presidential election; the 60% is his stated confidence, and the proposition is that Clinton wins. TRUE: Hillary Clinton won a majority of the Electoral College in the November 2016 election and became President-elect. FALSE: she did not win the Electoral College (for example she lost to Donald Trump), whatever the popular vote. A popular-vote win without the Electoral College does not satisfy 'win the Presidency', so it counts as FALSE, not mixed. There are no intermediate verdicts unless the outcome was still legally unresolved on 31 December 2016.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019

    “Winner: 304 | Main Opponent: 227 | Total/Majority: 538/270”

  2. E2 Clinton wins popular vote by nearly 2.9 million MPR News (based on AP analysis) · 22 December 2016

    “With all states voting, Trump finished with 304 votes and Clinton had 227.”

  3. E3 Who won the 2016 US Presidential Election - Live Results CBS News · 8 November 2016

    “Donald Trump won the election with 289 electoral votes.”

Reasoning

The AP-based report dated 22 December 2016 (E2) says that once all states had voted, Trump had 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227. The National Archives record (E1) shows the same split: the winner got 304 of 538 votes, against a majority threshold of 270, and the main opponent got 227. CBS (E3) reported on election night that Trump had won. Clinton did not win a majority of the Electoral College, so under the criteria the prediction resolves false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_df58220195ea, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_df58220195ea

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.