ClaimsScott Alexander

“Republicans will keep the Senate: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The 70% is only Scott's confidence and plays no part in the verdict. Only the event counts. True: once the November 2016 US elections were done, Republicans held a majority of US Senate seats (at least 51 of 100, or 50 with the Republican Vice President breaking ties) for the Congress starting January 2017. False: Democrats, with any independents who caucus with them, won control of the Senate. There is no middle ground, so mostly true, mixed and mostly false do not apply.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 The new faces in the 115th Congress CBS News · 3 January 2017

    “The Senate is also seeing some new faces -- it, too, remains under Republican control, albeit with a slimmer majority of 52-48.”

  2. E2 GOP Retains Control of the U.S. Senate NBC News · 9 November 2016

    “Republicans will maintain control of the Senate after Tuesday night's elections, NBC News projects”

  3. E3 Election 2016 Video Blog: Republicans Retain Senate Majority in Stunning Night for GOP - Roll Call Roll Call · 9 November 2016

    “Election 2016 Video Blog: Republicans Retain Senate Majority in Stunning Night for GOP”

Reasoning

On 2016-11-09, NBC News [E3] reported its projection that Republicans would keep control of the Senate after the elections, and Roll Call [E4] reported that Republicans kept their Senate majority. CBS News [E2] reported that the Senate of the 115th Congress, which started in January 2017, stayed under Republican control with a 52-48 majority. That meets the true criterion of at least 51 seats.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_b2c0083d06de, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_b2c0083d06de

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.