ClaimsScott Alexander

“altcoins will mostly not do fine.”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Altcoins will mostly not do fine by 2028.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_ac2f5a3382ee, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ac2f5a3382ee

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved false Prediction January 2018
    “Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

    Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

    Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.