The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
A factual claim about what Scott Alexander wrote in his February 2018 predictions post (on events up to 2023). True: the post lists 'Democrats win Presidency in 2020' at 60%. Mostly true: it gives 60% for an essentially identical proposition with slightly different wording. Mostly false: the post includes the prediction but at a different probability. False: the post has no such prediction. Whether Democrats actually won is not part of the test.
Set before the research began.
Reasoning
No evidence with a verified quote was found apart from the claim's own source, so the claim was not judged.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9ca0fd757d5b, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9ca0fd757d5b
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Mixed
“Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”
Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.
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Mostly true
“The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”
The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.
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Resolved true
“Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”
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Resolved true
“Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”
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Resolved true
“The European Union will not collapse.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.