ClaimsScott Alexander

“Democrats take control of the House in midterms: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger January 2018 2018 Predictions: Calibration Results (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

A factual claim about what Scott Alexander published in early 2018. True: a 2018 predictions post of his lists 'Democrats take control of the House in midterms' at 80%. Mostly true: 80% is given for an essentially identical proposition, or the post's date differs slightly from January. Mostly false: the prediction appears but at a different probability. False: no such prediction appears. The actual election result is not part of the test.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Predictions For 2018 Slate Star Codex · 6 February 2018 Own record

    “These were written a few days ago; a few already seem obsolete.”

  2. E2 Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions Astral Codex Ten (Scott Alexander) · 19 April 2021 Own record

    “This is my dump for all my other yearly prediction threads.”

  3. E3 My Predictions for 2018 (& a Template for Yours) — LessWrong LessWrong (post by Zachary Jacobi) · 2 January 2018

    “I originally made predictions after I was inspired by the yearly predictions on Slate Star Codex. Thanks Scott!”

Reasoning

E2 confirms that Scott Alexander published a "Predictions For 2018" post on Slate Star Codex on 2018-02-06, written a few days before. However, the quoted text does not include the House-control prediction or any probability. E4 and E5 only say that his yearly prediction posts exist. None of the quoted evidence shows the 80% figure, so the criteria cannot be applied.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms.” (said January 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_9306f469f657, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9306f469f657

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.