ClaimsScott Alexander

“Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Prediction Other Political

Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

The 60% is only Scott's confidence. Only the event counts. True: Marine Le Pen was not elected President of France in the 2017 presidential election (held in April and May 2017). False: she was elected. The outcome is binary, so no middle verdicts apply.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 Décision n° 2017-171 PDR du 10 mai 2017 Conseil constitutionnel (France) · 10 May 2017

    “M. Emmanuel MACRON élu Président de la République française.”

  2. E2 Emmanuel Macron defeats Le Pen to become French president BBC News · 7 May 2017

    “Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has decisively won the French presidential election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.”

  3. E3 Emmanuel Macron wins French presidency, routing Le Pen POLITICO Europe · 7 May 2017

    “Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France on Sunday, winning almost two-thirds of the vote to beat far-right rival Marine Le Pen in a runoff.”

Reasoning

The Conseil constitutionnel's decision of 10 May 2017 declares Emmanuel Macron elected President of the French Republic (E1). BBC News and POLITICO Europe both reported that Macron beat Marine Le Pen in the May 2017 runoff (E2, E3). So Le Pen was not elected President in the 2017 election, and the prediction resolved true.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8df96f2ff016, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8df96f2ff016

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

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All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.