ClaimsRodney Brooks

“Alas for them it appears that this is probably not the case.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author 1 January 2025 Predictions Scorecard, 2025 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Prediction AI capabilities

Brooks said it appears probably not to be the case that, if more made things better, even more would keep making things better, as proponents had reasoned.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

Prediction with no horizon and hedged ('probably') about scaling fixing unreliability.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Brooks said it appears probably not to be the case that, if more made things better, even more would keep making things better, as proponents had reasoned.” (said 1 January 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_8770d8e9db55, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8770d8e9db55

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “There will be many claims on this title earlier than 2023, but none of them will pan out.”

    Claims before 2023 to be the next big thing in AI beyond deep learning will not pan out.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2025
    “Launch seems imminent.”

    Rodney Brooks wrote on 2025-01-01 that New Glenn's launch seemed imminent.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.