ClaimsRodney Brooks

“This puts an inherent limit on how soon all our cars will be self driving.”

Rodney Brooks, writing on his blog 7 September 2017 [FoR&AI] The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI (rodneybrooks.com) archived copy

Prediction Technology

Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2040 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Because many of the non-self-driving cars bought today will likely still be on the road in 2040, this puts an inherent limit on how soon all cars will be self-driving.” (said 7 September 2017). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_86ae07ba82b3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_86ae07ba82b3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Rodney Brooks, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Rodney Brooks

  1. Resolved false Prediction 1 January 2024
    “Thereafter it is expected to fly with a crew once a year.”

    After its first crewed test flight in April 2024, Boeing's Starliner is expected to fly with a crew once a year.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 1 January 2023
    “I am concerned that Starship will not be ready for the proposed 2025 Lunar Landing of astronauts and that will really delay humankind’s return the to Moon.”

    Brooks said he was concerned that Starship would not be ready for the proposed 2025 crewed lunar landing, and that this would delay humankind's return to the Moon.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 9 July 2020
    “We will not have level 5 autonomous cars on our roads in 2020.”

    There will be no level 5 autonomous cars on roads in 2020.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 1 January 2018
    “The most recent prediction has been 4th quarter 2018. That is not going to happen.”

    Two paying customers will not go on a loop around the Moon on a Falcon Heavy in the 4th quarter of 2018.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 1 January 2026
    “Things at this stage are looking good for Artemis to fly in February 2026.”

    The Artemis II crewed lunar flyby looks on track to fly in February 2026.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.