ClaimsScott Alexander

“Occupation of Oregon ranger station ends: 99%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other

The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016.

Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

No resolution criteria were returned, so the claim was not researched.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_6a006ff852e8, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6a006ff852e8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

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