ClaimsScott Alexander

“Conditional on Trump winning the Republican nomination, he’ll lose the general election: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is a conditional prediction, judged on the 2016 general election. If Trump did not win the Republican nomination, the condition fails and the claim is unresolvable. If he was nominated: TRUE if Trump failed to win a majority of the Electoral College in November 2016; FALSE if he won the Electoral College and the presidency, regardless of the popular vote. Losing the popular vote while winning the Electoral College is not 'losing the general election', so it counts as FALSE.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019

    “Electoral Vote* | Winner: 304 | Main Opponent: 227 | Total/Majority: 538/270”

  2. E2 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019

    “President | Donald J. Trump [R]”

  3. E3 US 2016 election final results: how Trump won The Conversation · 17 December 2016

    “At the US election held on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton.”

Reasoning

The condition holds: E2 lists Donald J. Trump as the Republican [R] candidate for President, and E3 shows he ran in the 8 November 2016 general election. The National Archives (E1) records the winner with 304 electoral votes, above the 270 needed for a majority. E3 reports that Trump won the Electoral College 306 to 232, which differs from the 304 to 227 recorded by the National Archives [E1]; both figures are above the 270 majority. Under the criteria, winning the Electoral College means the prediction that he would lose resolved false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_642e519031d6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_642e519031d6

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mixed Prediction 15 February 2018
    “Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”

    Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.

  2. Mostly true Prediction 15 February 2018
    “The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”

    The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.

  3. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018.

  4. Resolved true Prediction January 2018
    “Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”

    Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 2018
    “The European Union will not collapse.”

    The European Union will not collapse by 2023.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.