Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
Reasoning
Vague, unspecified event and no horizon for 'long-lived effects'; hedged prediction not testable.
Cite this claim
Jeremy Grantham, “Given the constraints of Congress, the event, which comes with possibilities of tariff wars and political unease, would seem unlikely to cause long-lived effects, though this is not impossible.” (said 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_6290beb7cdf9, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6290beb7cdf9
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Jeremy Grantham
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Mostly false
“Second, Trump is likely to settle for a moderate reduction in corporate tax rates this year after bouncing off the infinitely complex task of a full redo of the tax code.”
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Resolved false
“we can conclude that the final low for this market might be well into 2024.”
The final low of this bear market might come well into 2024.
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Mixed
“near certainty it was a year ago, is much more likely than not.”
A continued market decline of at least substantial proportions is much more likely than not.
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Mostly false
“after a bloodbath is not unusual and may very well not outlive January.”
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Mostly true
“may help to support the market for a few more months.”
The Presidential Cycle's positive influence may help support the market for a few more months.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.