Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination.

This is judged on whether he made the prediction. TRUE if Scott Alexander's 2016 predictions list (made around the start of 2016 and scored in his end-of-2016 post) includes 'Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination' at 95%. MOSTLY TRUE if the prediction and the 95% figure appear but the wording differs slightly. MOSTLY FALSE if he made a prediction about Clinton winning the nomination but at a different probability. FALSE if no such prediction appears in his 2016 predictions or their scoring.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 January 2016 – Slate Star Codex Slate Star Codex · 25 January 2016 Own record

   “At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them. So here are a hundred more for 2016.”

2. E2 Scott Alexander's Self-Evaluations - Econlib Econlib (Liberty Fund Network) · 6 April 2017

   “I just learned that blogger Scott Alexander starts ends the year by scoring the accuracy of his numerous annual predictions: here are the results for 2014, 2015, and 2016.”

3. E3 Scott Alexander's Self-Evaluations - Econlib Econlib (Liberty Fund Network) · 6 April 2017

   “He made 59 predictions in 2014, 55 in 2015, 99 in 2016, and (though Bryan didn't link to it), 105 in 2017.”

E2 shows that in January 2016 Scott Alexander published a set of about a hundred predictions for 2016, and E3 and E4 show that he scored his 2016 predictions and that there were 99 of them. None of the quoted excerpts lists the individual predictions or mentions Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nomination, or a 95% figure. The evidence therefore can't confirm or rule out that this prediction was on the list at that probability.