The subject gave an 80% probability that no country currently in the Euro or EU would announce a new plan to leave in 2017.

Judged at the end of 2017. Counts as 'announcing a new plan to leave': the government (head of government, cabinet or parliament) of a country that was an EU or eurozone member on 2017-01-06 officially announces, during 2017, a decision, formal process or government-called referendum to leave the EU or the euro. The UK's continuation of the Brexit process begun by the 2016 referendum, including its March 2017 Article 50 notification, is not new and does not count. Also not counted: statements by opposition parties, campaign pledges by candidates who were not elected, and regional secession moves (e.g. Catalonia leaving Spain). True: no qualifying announcement occurred in 2017. Mostly true: none occurred, but a governing coalition partner or a ruling party formally adopted, without government action, a policy of holding an exit referendum. False: at least one qualifying government announcement occurred in 2017. Only true or false apply otherwise.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The EU in 2017 European Commission (op.europa.eu)

   “On 29 March 2017 the United Kingdom formally notified the European Council of its intention to leave the EU and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom).”

2. E2 EU Snapshots: A Chronology of 2017 vLex / JCMS Annual Review (Nikolaos Gkotsis Papaioannou, University of Surrey) · 1 September 2018

   “17 Prime Minister Theresa May sets out the UK’s Brexit negotiation priorities in”

3. E3 2017 in the European Union Wikipedia

   “1 July – Estonia takes over the six-month rotating presidency of the Council of EU.”

4. E4 The EU in 2017 European Commission (op.europa.eu)

   “In June the commitment to strengthening EU cooperation on security and defence was reiterated, and leaders agreed on the need to launch an inclusive and ambitious Permanent Structured Cooperation.”

5. E5 The EU in 2017 European Commission (Publications Office of the European Union) · 11 July 2017

   “At a special meeting of the European Council on 29 April the leaders of the other 27 Member States adopted political guidelines on the orderly withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU.”

6. E6 Review of Global Politics and Economy in 2017 and Outlook for 2018 Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute · 14 December 2017

   “In the series of elections held in major EU countries in 2017, pro-EU parties garnered majorities in all countries, and EU countries have maintained unity to face the Brexit negotiations.”

7. E7 Would Italy be better off without the euro? — Money, Banking and Financial Markets Money, Banking and Financial Markets (commentary blog) · 7 May 2017

   “In coming months, concerns probably will turn to Italy, where the leader of one popular party has called for a referendum on leaving the euro area”

8. E8 Italy’s struggle with the euro straitjacket - LSE European Politics LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) blog · 16 February 2017

   “First of all, the Italian constitution does not permit it.”

9. E9 Italeave or Quitaly? The EU Is Falling Apart The Original Boggart Blog · 5 July 2017

   “Under the headline Is Italy heading for debt restructuring or euro exit? Financial newsletter Eurointelligence reports that a possible programme for Italy’s leaving the Union is already being discussed in the Italian parliament by the likely partners in a ruling coalition following the next election.”

The evidence records the UK's Article 50 notification and the EU27's withdrawal guidelines (E1, E5), which do not count under the criteria, along with Italian exit talk by a party leader and by prospective coalition partners (E7, E9). No evidence item says that no member state government announced a new plan to leave in 2017, so the "true" verdict depends on reading missing evidence as proof that no announcement was made.