ClaimsScott Alexander

“And all that we’re saying here is that it’s not going to stop.”

Scott Alexander, interviewee 3 April 2025 AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo (Dwarkesh Podcast) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The long-running trend of accelerating research progress will not stop.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

The prediction has no horizon and a vaguely defined trend.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “The long-running trend of accelerating research progress will not stop.” (said 3 April 2025). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_469b17c86891, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_469b17c86891

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved false Prediction January 2018
    “Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

    Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

    Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.