Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
What would count as true or false
This is a probabilistic forecast; judge whether the forecast event happened by the horizon. True if Scott Alexander's published 2016 predictions list gives a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, and Trump became the 2016 Republican presidential nominee (formally nominated at the July 2016 convention). Mostly true if the event happened but the probability he gave differs slightly from 60% (e.g. 55% or 65%). Mostly false if the event happened but no such forecast at about that probability can be found in his predictions list. False if Trump did not win the nomination.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Trump Crowned GOP Nominee, Vows to 'Win in November' - Roll Call Roll Call · 19 July 2016
“Donald Trump officially clinched the Republican nomination for president on Tuesday, culminating an unexpected and tumultuous political ascent that energized dissatisfied Americans and alarmed the establishment.”
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E2 2016 Republican National Convention Wikipedia
“On July 19, 2016, the convention formally nominated Donald Trump for president and Indiana governor Mike Pence for vice president.”
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E3 Donald Trump formally nominated as Republican presidential candidate ABC7 New York · 20 July 2016
“CLEVELAND -- United for a night, Republicans nominated Donald Trump Tuesday as their presidential standard-bearer, capping the billionaire businessman's stunning takeover of the GOP”
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E4 Scott Alexander's Self-Evaluations - Econlib Econlib (Liberty Fund) · 6 April 2017
“I just learned that blogger Scott Alexander starts ends the year by scoring the accuracy of his numerous annual predictions: here are the results for 2014, 2015, and 2016.”
Reasoning
Independent sources confirm the forecast event: the convention formally nominated Donald Trump for president on July 19, 2016 (E2, E4, E5). However, no evidence item reproduces Scott Alexander's 2016 predictions list or shows that he gave 60% to this outcome. E6 says only that he scores his annual predictions. The criteria separate true (60% was given), mostly true (a nearby probability) and mostly false (no such forecast), so the missing forecast figure leaves the verdict unsettled.
Cite this claim
Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2756cc626205, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2756cc626205
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Scott Alexander
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Mixed
“Also, I predict we see a lot more of Ted Cruz than people are expecting.”
Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect.
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Mostly true
“The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.”
The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown.
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Resolved true
“Mueller does not indict Trump: 70%”
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Resolved true
“Donald Trump remains president at end of year: 95%”
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Resolved true
“The European Union will not collapse.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.