ClaimsScott Alexander

“Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to transfer their profits from one place to another, then decide that would make people angry and decide not to.”

Scott Alexander, blog author 15 February 2018 Five More Years (Slate Star Codex) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

True: between February 2018 and the end of 2023, there are documented cases (credible reporting, filings, or statements by executives) of at least one multinational corporation, and plausibly more than one ('occasionally'), considering the use of cryptocurrency to move profits across jurisdictions, and then dropping the idea with reputational or public backlash among the stated or reported reasons. Mostly true: such debates are documented, but the reason for dropping them is reported only partly or ambiguously as fear of public anger. Mixed: debates about using crypto to move profits are documented, but they were dropped for unrelated reasons (regulatory, technical, cost), or the companies went ahead. Mostly false: multinationals discussed crypto only for other purposes (payments, treasury holdings, as Tesla or MicroStrategy did), not for moving profits, and nothing shows a profit-transfer debate. False: the record shows that multinationals adopted crypto for profit transfer without backlash-driven reversals, or reviews of corporate crypto use in the period show no such debates.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (2)

  1. E1 [PDF] DAC6 briefing note: Trump, crypto, and DAC6 | VinciWorks VinciWorks · 11 April 2026

    “Taxpayers are increasingly using crypto to shift profits across jurisdictions in ways that”
  2. E2 DAC6 briefing note: Trump, crypto, and DAC6 (A tax evasion time bomb) VinciWorks

    “Taxpayers are increasingly using crypto to shift profits across jurisdictions in ways that are difficult to track under existing DAC6 hallmarks.”

Reasoning

The only evidence is a compliance vendor's briefing (E1, E3). It says in general terms that taxpayers increasingly use crypto to shift profits across jurisdictions. It names no multinational, describes no internal corporate debate about using crypto to move profits, and reports no decision against it because of public backlash. The evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria, so it is unresolvable.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_0157a3d8cce3, method 0.1.0+8bea457b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_0157a3d8cce3

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Scott Alexander, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Scott Alexander

  1. Mostly false Prediction 15 February 2018
    “First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide.”

    First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor.

  2. Resolved false Prediction January 2018
    “Bitcoin is higher than $10,000 at end of year: 80%”

    Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018.

  3. Resolved true Prediction 6 January 2017
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60%”

    Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000.

  4. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Bitcoin will end the year higher than $500: 80%”

    The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500.

  5. Resolved true Prediction 25 January 2016
    “Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 70%”

    The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.