ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Research failed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Research failed Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Economics and markets

“Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything.”

Scott Alexander, blog author 15 February 2018 Five More Years (Slate Star Codex)

Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023.

Research failed Research could not run for this claim; not scored.

Reasoning

no triage answer returned

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023.” (said 15 February 2018). Verdict: research failed. Reliability API, claim c_4d7ea80900d1, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4d7ea80900d1

Claims without a verdict

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