ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

234 claims · page 3 of 3

234 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Research failed Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The occupation of the Oregon ranger station will end in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will not stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Factual 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of each year. Factual · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will still be at his current job at the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Greece would not announce in 2016 that it was leaving the euro. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 US unemployment will be lower at the end of 2016 than at the beginning. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that North Korea's government would survive 2016 without a large civil war or revolt. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Own records only Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will attend at least one Solstice event in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Nobody important will change their mind much about the EMDrive based on information found in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 The Implicit Association Test is one of the ways we know racism is a giant all-encompassing social factor. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 30 Sep 2014 A recent Implicit Association Test study using political parties found unconscious partisan biases were about 1.5 times as strong as unconscious racial biases. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander said he already expects this post will be used as convenient material to fling at the Blue Tribe. Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 In every US election cycle, liberals give unconvincing denials of the accusation that they are not sufficiently pro-America. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2014 The Nazis' outgroup was the almost-identical German Jews rather than the culturally distant Japanese. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2014 Estimates of the genetic contribution to political association range from 0.4 to 0.6. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2014 Heritability of attitudes toward gay rights is estimated at 0.3 to 0.5, slightly higher than the heritability of homosexuality. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 In every US election cycle, conservatives accuse liberals of not being sufficiently pro-America. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 In a Reddit thread of 10,401 comments asking for people against gay marriage, the author found only two commenters who opposed it, near the bottom. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 30 Sep 2014 Social 'tribes' such as Blue and Red Tribe will turn out to be stronger categories than political affiliation. Prediction · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander's hunch is that both the Red Tribe and the Blue Tribe identify "America" with the Red Tribe. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly true Factual 30 Sep 2014 Researchers have studied belief congruence theory, that belief differences matter more than demographics in forming in-groups and outgroups, for decades. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Factual 30 Sep 2014 Scott Alexander is a psychiatrist by profession. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 Every one of the cited articles criticizing America was written by an American and read almost entirely by Americans. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Factual 30 Sep 2014 The worst reaction Scott Alexander got to a blog post was to his post about the death of Osama bin Laden. Factual · 30 Sep 2014 Their own work or organisation
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other Political

“Conditional on Trump winning the Republican nomination, he’ll lose the general election: 80%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 25 January 2016 Predictions For 2016 (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

What would count as true or false

This is a conditional prediction, judged on the 2016 general election. If Trump did not win the Republican nomination, the condition fails and the claim is unresolvable. If he was nominated: TRUE if Trump failed to win a majority of the Electoral College in November 2016; FALSE if he won the Electoral College and the presidency, regardless of the popular vote. Losing the popular vote while winning the Electoral College is not 'losing the general election', so it counts as FALSE.

Evidence

  1. 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019
    “Electoral Vote* | Winner: 304 | Main Opponent: 227 | Total/Majority: 538/270”
  2. 2016 Electoral College Results National Archives (archives.gov) · 5 November 2019
    “President | Donald J. Trump [R]”
  3. US 2016 election final results: how Trump won The Conversation · 17 December 2016
    “At the US election held on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton.”

Reasoning

The condition holds: E2 lists Donald J. Trump as the Republican [R] candidate for President, and E3 shows he ran in the 8 November 2016 general election. The National Archives (E1) records the winner with 304 electoral votes, above the 270 needed for a majority. E3 reports that Trump won the Electoral College 306 to 232, which differs from the 304 to 227 recorded by the National Archives [E1]; both figures are above the 270 majority. Under the criteria, winning the Electoral College means the prediction that he would lose resolved false.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election.” (said 25 January 2016). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_642e519031d6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_642e519031d6

Claims without a verdict

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