ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

234 claims · page 2 of 3

234 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 Other
Unresolvable Factual 20 Feb 2023 As far as he could tell, writing in February 2023, none of the space tourism developments he had discussed had worked out, and the field seemed stuck in the same limbo as for the past decade and a half. Factual · 20 Feb 2023 Technology
Not yet due Prediction 20 Feb 2023 He gave a 60% probability that by 2028 AI would be a smaller political issue than abortion, with 20% each for bigger and equal. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI policy and governance
Resolved true Factual 20 Feb 2023 In 2018 Scott Alexander partly abandoned his usual clear-resolution probabilistic predictions for rough guesses in his five-year predictions. Factual · 20 Feb 2023 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 20 Feb 2023 AI will take a long time to conquer fields like biology that involve loops with the physical world. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Unresolvable Factual 14 Mar 2022 Scott Alexander said that in February 2022 he had discussed problems with the Metaculus leaderboard. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 14 Mar 2022 In February 2022 Scott Alexander suggested that Manifold Markets add a loan feature to boost investment in long-term markets. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 14 Mar 2022 The probability shown in the chart in the post was almost monotonically decreasing, lower each day than the day before. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 14 Mar 2022 Scott Alexander said that, if he understood it right, in the study the average forecaster did worse than the average expert, but Tetlock used clever aggregation methods for his superforecasters while the CIA did not use such methods for its experts. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Science and research methods
Resolved true Factual 14 Mar 2022 A team described as some of the best superforecasters in the world won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by a large margin, described as around twice as good as the next-best team in relative Brier score. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Science and research methods
Mostly true Factual 14 Mar 2022 Early in the Russia-Ukraine war prediction markets gave Ukraine poor odds, and by March 2022 they were much more optimistic about Ukraine. Factual · 14 Mar 2022 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 14 Feb 2021 The NYT journalist has not known about Slate Star Codex for three years, so he read the edited version of the Voldemort post that told people not to take it out of context. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 14 Feb 2021 The NYT's original pitch was interest in how Scott Alexander warned early about the coronavirus pandemic and urged mask-wearing before it was standard advice. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 14 Feb 2021 Far more people will read the NYT article than will read Scott Alexander's response, so the NYT's plan will probably work. Prediction · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander's Contra Grant post states "My research suggests no average gender difference in ability". Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander said the NYT's characterisation was true only insofar as he once expressed agreement with an unrelated Charles Murray position: that telling poor people to learn to code is insufficient and a stable income is needed. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander received support from Steven Pinker, Larry Sanger, Jonathan Haidt, Liv Boeree and Yascha Mounk. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander was warned by people "in the know" that the NYT would publish something as negative as possible about him once it had an excuse. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 14 Feb 2021 In early 2020, Scott Alexander learned the New York Times wanted to write an article about him. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Mixed Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander wrote a 30,000-word condemnation of one of the right-wing figures named in the article on his blog a few years ago. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander met Peter Thiel once at a party, long before Trump was in the news, and exchanged about two sentences with him. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Factual 14 Feb 2021 Scott Alexander has never personally been involved in the tech industry. Factual · 14 Feb 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander quit his day job so his employer would not be affected by the fallout. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jan 2021 Trolls posted Scott Alexander's real name in many places after he tried to protect his anonymity. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander lost a five-digit sum in advertising and Patreon fees. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jan 2021 Scott Alexander deleted his blog, which had 1,557 posts. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jan 2021 While trying to restore his blog, Scott Alexander accidentally sent about three hundred emails to each of five thousand people. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 21 Jan 2021 After Scott Alexander deleted his blog, articles about him appeared in the New Yorker, Reason, and The Daily Beast. Factual · 21 Jan 2021 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 24 Jun 2020 The New York Times reporter told Scott Alexander that his editor absolutely prohibited writing the story without Alexander's real name and that the reporter considered the story too important to drop. Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Factual 24 Jun 2020 Scott Alexander discussed with the New York Times reporter why he wanted his real name left out of the story, saying largely what he said in his public post. Factual · 24 Jun 2020 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 80%, Scott Alexander got 10 right and 3 wrong, a score of 77%. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 60%, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 7 wrong, a score of 53%. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jan 2019 Of his 2018 predictions at 95%, Scott Alexander got 6 right and 2 wrong, a score of 75%. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Delivered on time Promise 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander will post his 2019 predictions later in the week of 22 January 2019. Promise · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jan 2019 At the 95% confidence level, Scott Alexander's 2018 predictions came out only 75% correct. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander made predictions in February 2018 for the next five years. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Factual 22 Jan 2019 Cryptocurrency crashed during 2018, after Bitcoin was around $15,000 when Scott Alexander made his 2018 predictions. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Factual 22 Jan 2019 Scott Alexander made many correlated cryptocurrency predictions for 2018, which therefore scored badly. Factual · 22 Jan 2019 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to move profits between places, then decide against it for fear of public anger. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Research failed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything by 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave an 80% probability that one Bitcoin would cost above $1,000, in a prediction with a deadline of 15 February 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The subject gave a 60% probability that Democrats win the US Presidency in 2020. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Unresolvable Prediction 15 Feb 2018 As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into a formal institution limited to college grads with good job prospects. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that he would not finish more than 25% of a new novel by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would still be working at his current job at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that he would not attend the New York Solstice in 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Unresolvable Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Democrats would take control of the US House in the 2018 midterms. Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Own records only Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Slate Star Codex would get more hits in 2018 than in 2017. Prediction · Jan 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 Two or three competing companies will offer low-level space tourism by 2023. Prediction · 2018 Technology
Unresolvable Prediction 2018 He gave an 80% probability that by 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Prediction · 2018 Other
Resolved false Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The subject gave an 80% probability that no country currently in the Euro or EU would announce a new plan to leave in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will take the job he is currently expecting to take. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would be involved in at least one published or accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Unresolvable Factual 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the beginning of every year. Factual · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 50% probability that he would get at least one article published on a major site such as Huffington Post, Vox or New Statesman in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that he would not score at or above the 95th percentile when he got his 2017 PRITE scores back. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will attend the Bay Area Solstice in the coming year (2017). Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There is an 80% chance that construction on the Mexican border wall, beyond existing barriers, will begin in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Unresolvable Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that by the end of 2017 SSC would have no co-bloggers with more than 5 posts. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Own records only Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander will pass his Boards in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Their own work or organisation
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Unresolvable Factual 31 Dec 2016 Setting aside the 50% bin, which he called meaningless, Scott Alexander said his main calibration deviation in 2016 was some underconfidence at the 70% level. Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 31 Dec 2016 Of his 2016 predictions made at 50% confidence, Scott Alexander got 8 right and 5 wrong, a score of 62%. Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Factual 31 Dec 2016 Looking back at his 2014, 2015 and 2016 predictions, Scott Alexander said he is probably generally a little underconfident in medium-probability predictions. Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Science and research methods
Unresolvable Factual 31 Dec 2016 Scott Alexander makes predictions at the start of every year and scores them at the end of every year. Factual · 31 Dec 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that UNSONG would get fewer hits than Slate Star Codex in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that the US would not get involved in any new major war with a death toll above 100 US soldiers in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Donald Trump would win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Own records only Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander will score at or above the 95th percentile on next year's PRITE (psychiatry in-training exam). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 No major war in Asia (over 100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and American deaths combined) over disputed islands will occur in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Unresolvable Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic nomination. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other

“I expect Ukraine and Russia to figure out some unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine”

Scott Alexander, blogger 20 February 2023 Grading My 2018 Predictions For 2023 (Astral Codex Ten)

Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Reasoning

deadline 2028 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Ukraine and Russia will reach an unsatisfying stalemate before 2028, followed by massive growth in Ukraine.” (said 20 February 2023). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_ee28e45298ef, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_ee28e45298ef

Claims without a verdict

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