ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other Political

“Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

This is judged on the outcome. TRUE if Keith Ellison was elected chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017. FALSE if someone else was elected DNC chair in 2017. MOSTLY FALSE if Ellison received a different DNC leadership post (for example deputy chair) but not the chair. No other partial verdicts apply.

Evidence

  1. Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017
    “ATLANTA – Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez narrowly beat U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison on Saturday to lead the Democratic Party in its fight against President Donald Trump, leaving Ellison to return to his job as a Minnesota congressman.”
  2. Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017
    “Perez was elected on the second ballot at the meeting of Democratic Party leaders, capturing 235 votes to 200 for Ellison.”
  3. Tom Perez wins DNC chair, names Keith Ellison deputy, after race that included focus on Jewish issues Jewish Telegraphic Agency · 25 February 2017
    “Tom Perez, the former Labor Department secretary, was elected Democratic National Committee chairman and immediately named his rival, Rep. Keith Ellison, as his deputy.”

Reasoning

Tom Perez beat Keith Ellison in the February 2017 vote for DNC chair (E1), 235 votes to 200 on the second ballot (E2). Right after the vote, Perez named Ellison his deputy chair (E3). The criteria call for "mostly false" when Ellison got a different DNC leadership post but not the chair, so that is the verdict.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_fbd64e5afea6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fbd64e5afea6

Claims without a verdict

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