ClaimsPeople

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander is a writer known for his blogs Astral Codex Ten and Slate Star Codex and for fiction including Unsong.

775 claims collected, 234 researched, 81 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+8bea457b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    80 72 88

    Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    70 62 78

    Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

    See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

44 claims

44 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI capabilities
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 3 Apr 2025 In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI capabilities
Resolved true Prediction 20 Feb 2023 Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023 AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false Prediction 15 Feb 2018 First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Their own work or organisation
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 15 Feb 2018 The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Other
Resolved true Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction Jan 2018 Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Prediction · Jan 2018 Technology
Resolved true Prediction 2018 There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Prediction · 2018 AI, the economy and work
Mixed Prediction 2018 Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 2018 Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true Prediction 2018 The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Prediction · 2018 Other
Resolved false Prediction 2018 If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Prediction · 2018 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 6 Jan 2017 The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mixed Prediction 6 Jan 2017 ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Science and research methods
Resolved true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other global risks
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Biosecurity
Mostly true Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Mostly false Prediction 6 Jan 2017 Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017 Other
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Mostly true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
Resolved true Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other global risks
Resolved false Prediction 25 Jan 2016 Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016 Other
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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other Political

“Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

This is judged on the outcome. TRUE if Keith Ellison was elected chair of the Democratic National Committee in 2017. FALSE if someone else was elected DNC chair in 2017. MOSTLY FALSE if Ellison received a different DNC leadership post (for example deputy chair) but not the chair. No other partial verdicts apply.

Evidence

  1. Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017
    “ATLANTA – Former Labor Secretary Tom Perez narrowly beat U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison on Saturday to lead the Democratic Party in its fight against President Donald Trump, leaving Ellison to return to his job as a Minnesota congressman.”
  2. Ellison loses bid to lead Democrats, will stay in Congress Minnesota Star Tribune · 26 February 2017
    “Perez was elected on the second ballot at the meeting of Democratic Party leaders, capturing 235 votes to 200 for Ellison.”
  3. Tom Perez wins DNC chair, names Keith Ellison deputy, after race that included focus on Jewish issues Jewish Telegraphic Agency · 25 February 2017
    “Tom Perez, the former Labor Department secretary, was elected Democratic National Committee chairman and immediately named his rival, Rep. Keith Ellison, as his deputy.”

Reasoning

Tom Perez beat Keith Ellison in the February 2017 vote for DNC chair (E1), 235 votes to 200 on the second ballot (E2). Right after the vote, Perez named Ellison his deputy chair (E3). The criteria call for "mostly false" when Ellison got a different DNC leadership post but not the chair, so that is the verdict.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_fbd64e5afea6, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_fbd64e5afea6

Claims without a verdict

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