Scott Alexander: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

80 72 88

Medium confidence, 35 factual claims resolved. From 10 documents, 2014 to 2026; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable, 9 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

70 62 78

Medium confidence, 44 predictions resolved. From 7 documents, 2016 to 2025; 15 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 67 unresolvable, 10 checkable only against their own records. 19 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

Insufficient record: 2 promises resolved, 5 needed for a score.

See the promises

All types combined: 75 (likely 69 to 80, high confidence), from 79 claims: 35 factual claims, 44 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Scott Alexander's claims

44 claims

44 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Resolved true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, the government becomes extremely interested in AI and discusses nationalizing the AI companies. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	The authors of the scenario think coding is what will start the intelligence explosion. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI capabilities
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, as AI labs become more capable they tell the government, seeking government contracts and support. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Prediction	3 Apr 2025	In the AI 2027 scenario, the government sees via cyber warfare that AIs are as capable as the best human hackers but deployable at huge scale. Prediction · 3 Apr 2025	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Prediction	20 Feb 2023	Scaling AI models will continue to produce gains, though less obviously than in the past five years. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023	AI capabilities
Resolved true	Prediction	20 Feb 2023	Training GPT-4 will cost $100 million. Prediction · 20 Feb 2023	AI compute, hardware and data
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	The culture wars will continue with both sides scoring own-goals, victory going to whichever side first gets its supporters to shut up. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Mostly false	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide between formal institutions for the rich and informal gig economies for the poor. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that he would remember and publicly grade these predictions sometime in 2023. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Their own work or organisation
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	With 80% probability, by February 2023 the Paris Agreement would still be in effect, with most countries generally making a good-faith effort to comply. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Through 2023, there will be no obvious sign that technological unemployment is happening on a large scale. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	AI, the economy and work
Mixed	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Scott Alexander predicts that people will see a lot more of Ted Cruz than they expect. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other
Mostly true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	Global existential risks will hopefully not be a big part of the 2018-2023 period. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other global risks
Mostly true	Prediction	15 Feb 2018	The crisis of the Republican Party will turn out to have been overblown. Prediction · 15 Feb 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that Robert Mueller would not indict Donald Trump during 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that Donald Trump would still be US president at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that Reddit would not ban r/the_donald by the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Technology
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would be priced above $10,000 at the end of 2018. Prediction · Jan 2018	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	Jan 2018	Scott Alexander gave a 70% probability that the first Falcon Heavy launch would not be successful. Prediction · Jan 2018	Technology
Resolved true	Prediction	2018	There will not be a 'Truckpocalypse' before 2023. Prediction · 2018	AI, the economy and work
Mixed	Prediction	2018	Religion will continue to retreat from US public life through 2023. Prediction · 2018	Philosophy, ethics and society
Resolved true	Prediction	2018	The European Union will not collapse by 2023. Prediction · 2018	Other
Resolved false	Prediction	2018	If global existential risks became a big part of 2018-2023, it would be because someone did something incredibly stupid or awful with infectious diseases. Prediction · 2018	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	The situation in Israel will look more worse than better at the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Mixed	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	ISIS will no longer exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	A significant number of EMDrive skeptics will not become convinced it works during 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Science and research methods
Resolved true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	There will be no revolt against the Chinese Communist Party of Tiananmen Square scale or greater in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other global risks
Mostly true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	No announcement of a genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for one will occur in 2017. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Scott Alexander gave a 95% probability that fewer refugees would be admitted in 2017 than in 2016. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Mostly false	Prediction	6 Jan 2017	Scott Alexander gave a 70% chance that Keith Ellison would be chosen as the new DNC chair. Prediction · 6 Jan 2017	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	There will be no earthquake in the world killing more than 10,000 people in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	The subject gave an 80% probability that Bitcoin would end 2016 higher than $500. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that there would be no major intifada in Israel in 2016 (over 250 Israeli deaths, excluding a Cast Lead style war). Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that, if Trump won the Republican nomination, he would lose the 2016 general election. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that Assad would remain President of Syria. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	The Dow Jones will not fall more than 10% in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 90% probability that ISIS would control less territory at the end of 2016 than it did in January 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Ukraine will neither break into all-out war nor get neatly resolved in 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% probability that ISIS would not continue to exist as a state entity by the end of 2016. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Republicans will keep control of the US Senate after the 2016 elections. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave an 80% probability that Libya would remain a mess. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other global risks
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Jan 2016	Scott Alexander gave a 60% chance that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 US Presidency. Prediction · 25 Jan 2016	Other

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Scott Alexander

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Prediction Other Political

“Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60%”

Scott Alexander, blogger 6 January 2017 Predictions For 2017 (Slate Star Codex)

Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

The 60% is only Scott's confidence. Only the event counts. True: Marine Le Pen was not elected President of France in the 2017 presidential election (held in April and May 2017). False: she was elected. The outcome is binary, so no middle verdicts apply.

Evidence

Décision n° 2017-171 PDR du 10 mai 2017 Conseil constitutionnel (France) · 10 May 2017
“M. Emmanuel MACRON élu Président de la République française.”
Emmanuel Macron defeats Le Pen to become French president BBC News · 7 May 2017
“Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron has decisively won the French presidential election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen.”
Emmanuel Macron wins French presidency, routing Le Pen POLITICO Europe · 7 May 2017
“Emmanuel Macron was elected president of France on Sunday, winning almost two-thirds of the vote to beat far-right rival Marine Le Pen in a runoff.”

Reasoning

The Conseil constitutionnel's decision of 10 May 2017 declares Emmanuel Macron elected President of the French Republic (E1). BBC News and POLITICO Europe both reported that Macron beat Marine Le Pen in the May 2017 runoff (E2, E3). So Le Pen was not elected President in the 2017 election, and the prediction resolved true.

Cite this claim

Scott Alexander, “Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017.” (said 6 January 2017). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_8df96f2ff016, method 0.1.0+8bea457b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_8df96f2ff016

Claims without a verdict

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