Rodney Brooks

Factual · Technology

“So this goal was not achieved in 2019.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author · 1 January 2020 · Predictions Scorecard, 2020 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

Neither Boeing nor SpaceX achieved crewed capsule flight in 2019, after major failures with their systems.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

What would count as true or false

True if neither Boeing's CST-100 Starliner nor SpaceX's Crew Dragon flew a crew in calendar year 2019, and each had a major failure or setback in 2019 (for example, Starliner's December 2019 uncrewed Orbital Flight Test not reaching the ISS, and Crew Dragon's April 2019 test-stand explosion). Mostly true if no crewed flight happened but one company's setback was less than a major failure. Mostly false if no crewed flight happened but neither company had a significant failure. False if either flew a crew in 2019.

Evidence

1. SpaceX and NASA detail cause of Dragon test failure, crewed flight this year looks 'increasingly difficult' | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 15 July 2019

   “After the first few tests proved successful, the test encountered a failure that was instantly visible, with an unexpected explosion that produced a plume of fire visible for miles around the testing site at its Landing Zone 1 facility in Cape Canaveral, Fla.”

2. SpaceX and NASA detail cause of Dragon test failure, crewed flight this year looks 'increasingly difficult' | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 15 July 2019

   “That definitely won’t occur on that timeline, and now ongoing production of Crew Dragon craft will bump back the designated machines one generation, meaning the intended Crew Dragon 1 craft meant for crewed mission flight is now Test 2, and so on.”

3. SpaceX and NASA detail cause of Dragon test failure, crewed flight this year looks 'increasingly difficult' | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 15 July 2019

   “I don’t think it’s impossible, but it’s getting increasingly difficult, too,” he said, when asked directly about a crewed Dragon launch occurring before the end of 2019.”

4. Boeing crew capsule falters after launch from Cape Canaveral Spaceflight Now · 20 December 2019

   “But the Starliner could not complete an automated orbit insertion maneuver a half-hour after launch from Cape Canaveral due to a timing error on the spacecraft, NASA and Boeing officials said.”

5. Boeing crew capsule falters after launch from Cape Canaveral Spaceflight Now · 20 December 2019

   “SpaceX accomplished a successful Crew Dragon test flight to the station in March, but the capsule was destroyed in an explosion during a ground test of its abort engines in April.”

6. Boeing crew capsule falters after launch from Cape Canaveral Spaceflight Now · 20 December 2019

   “After introducing a fix to the cause the explosion, SpaceX is gearing up for a high-altitude launch abort test in January, and says it can be ready to fly astronauts to station soon after that.”

7. Starliner makes a safe landing—now NASA faces some big decisions Ars Technica · 22 December 2019

   “With the on-board propellant remaining, Starliner did not have sufficient reserves to approach the International Space Station and perform a rendezvous and docking with the orbiting laboratory—a key objective of this flight test before NASA allows its astronauts to fly on the capsule into space.”

Reasoning

Spaceflight Now reported that a Crew Dragon capsule was destroyed in an explosion during a ground test of its abort engines in April 2019 (E5), and TechCrunch described the test explosion at Landing Zone 1 (E1). As of 20 December 2019, SpaceX was still preparing for a launch abort test in January before it could fly astronauts (E6). That means Crew Dragon had not flown a crew by late 2019. Boeing's Starliner flew its December 2019 test uncrewed, failed its orbit insertion because of a timing error, and could not reach or dock with the ISS (E4, E7). That counts as a major failure for each company and no crewed flight in 2019, which meets the criteria for true.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “Neither Boeing nor SpaceX achieved crewed capsule flight in 2019, after major failures with their systems.” (said 1 January 2020). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_5af73d29c0be, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5af73d29c0be