Rodney Brooks

Factual · Technology

“The Artemis 2 mission will take astronauts to lunar orbit in May 2024, to be followed by Artemis 3 landing two astronauts on the Moon some time in 2025.”

Rodney Brooks, blog author · 1 January 2023 · Predictions Scorecard, 2023 January 01 (rodneybrooks.com)

NASA's current plan is for Artemis 2 to take astronauts to lunar orbit in May 2024, followed by Artemis 3 landing two astronauts on the Moon in 2025.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 1 January 2023, against NASA's official plan at that time. True: NASA's official schedule as of that date targeted the crewed lunar flyby or orbit of Artemis II for around May 2024 (or within 2024 with May given as a nominal target) and the crewed landing of two astronauts on Artemis III for 2025. Mostly true: both missions were targeted for the stated years, but the official Artemis II month differed somewhat from May, or Artemis II is described as orbit when it was a flyby. Mixed: one of the two dates matches NASA's plan at the time and the other does not. Mostly false: both stated years differ from NASA's official targets, but only slightly. False: NASA's plan at the time was clearly different on both points. Later delays do not count, because the claim is about the plan as of 1 January 2023.

Evidence

1. Congressional Testimony - Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3, A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony of Paul K. Martin to House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “With Artemis II, NASA is facing additional schedule delays—until at least mid-2024—due to the second mission’s reuse of Orion components from Artemis I.”

2. Congressional Testimony - Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3, A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony of Paul K. Martin to House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “However, when the timeline for the Artemis III mission was accelerated to 2024, NASA was required to fast-track its schedule by 4 years and planned to deliver flight suits to the HLS Program for integration no later than March 2023.”

3. Congressional Testimony - Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3, A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony of Paul K. Martin to House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “Finally, given the time needed to develop and fully test the HLS and NASA’s next-generation spacesuits needed for lunar exploration, the date for a crewed lunar landing likely will slip to 2026 at the earliest.”

4. Congressional Testimony - Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3, A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony of Paul K. Martin to House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “With the crewed Artemis II mission scheduled to launch by mid-2024, the margin of time available to identify skillset needs, recruit and hire additional astronaut candidates, develop a framework for Artemis training, and adjust current processes for sizing, aligning, training, and assigning astronauts is quickly diminishing.”

5. Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3: A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative (Statement of Paul K. Martin, Inspector General) NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony before the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “With Artemis II, NASA is facing additional schedule delays—until at least mid-2024—due to the second mission’s reuse of Orion components from Artemis I.”

6. Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3: A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative (Statement of Paul K. Martin, Inspector General) NASA Office of Inspector General (testimony before the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics) · 20 January 2022

   “Finally, given the time needed to develop and fully test the HLS and NASA’s next-generation spacesuits needed for lunar exploration, the date for a crewed lunar landing likely will slip to 2026 at the earliest.”

7. National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Advisory Council, Human Exploration and Operations Committee (meeting minutes) · 1 November 2022

   “Focusing on ESDMD, the manifest shows that Artemis II will fly in 2024, followed by Artemis III in 2025, which will include the SpaceX Starship lander.”

8. National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASA Advisory Council, Human Exploration and Operations Committee (meeting minutes) · 1 November 2022

   “Mr. Kshatriya felt the date was pretty solid, but there would need to be some component availability post-Artemis I.”

9. 1 U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics (hearing charter) · 1 March 2022

   “As of November 2021, NASA is estimating that Artemis II will launch no later than May 2024”

10. 1 U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics (hearing charter) · 1 March 2022

    “As of November 2021, NASA is estimating that Artemis III will launch no earlier than 2025”

Reasoning

The NASA Advisory Council minutes from November 2022 [E7] say NASA's manifest had Artemis II flying in 2024 and Artemis III, including the SpaceX Starship lander, in 2025, so both years in the claim match NASA's plan shortly before 1 January 2023. The House hearing charter [E9] says NASA estimated an Artemis II launch "no later than May 2024", but that estimate dates from November 2021. The OIG testimony [E1, E4] says only "mid-2024". No evidence from late 2022 confirms May as the target month, so the year-level plan is confirmed but the month is not.

Cite this claim

Rodney Brooks, “NASA's current plan is for Artemis 2 to take astronauts to lunar orbit in May 2024, followed by Artemis 3 landing two astronauts on the Moon in 2025.” (said 1 January 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_3e1f06ecafaa, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3e1f06ecafaa