Nouriel Roubini: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

72 64 80

Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

40 27 53

Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

146 claims · page 2 of 2

146 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Unresolvable	Factual	24 Dec 2019	The Chinese prefer Donald Trump to be re-elected US president because he is protectionist and unilateralist. Factual · 24 Dec 2019	AI policy and governance
Unresolvable	Prediction	24 Dec 2019	Over time Trump will damage US alliances and weaken US soft and hard power, making China stronger. Prediction · 24 Dec 2019	AI policy and governance
Unresolvable	Factual	8 Dec 2019	As of 8 December 2019, 99.9% of cryptocurrencies have lost 99% of their value since their peak. Factual · 8 Dec 2019	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	27 Nov 2019	As of 27 November 2019, Ethereum is down 90% from its peak and close to its 2018 low. Factual · 27 Nov 2019	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	26 Nov 2019	As of late November 2019, Bitcoin is down 65% from its peak and the other top 10 cryptocurrencies are down 80% from their peaks. Factual · 26 Nov 2019	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	20 Nov 2019	In November 2019 there is a growing disconnect between mediocre global economic growth with rising risks and frothy, exuberant financial markets. Factual · 20 Nov 2019	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	6 Nov 2019	As of November 2019, no application of blockchain, defined as a public, decentralized, permission-less, trustless ledger, works or is widely used despite billions spent on it over a decade. Factual · 6 Nov 2019	Technology
Unresolvable	Factual	14 Jun 2019	As of June 2019, nine of the ten recession risks Roubini and Rosa identified in summer 2018 are still in play. Factual · 14 Jun 2019	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	15 Oct 2018	Bitcoin's value had fallen by around 70% from its peak in late 2017 as of October 2018. Factual · 15 Oct 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	15 Oct 2018	The value of leading coins such as Ether, EOS, Litecoin and XRP had all fallen by over 80% as of October 2018. Factual · 15 Oct 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	15 Oct 2018	the rest have been exposed as outright frauds. Factual · 15 Oct 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	15 Oct 2018	Thousands of other digital currencies had fallen by 90-99% from their peaks as of October 2018. Factual · 15 Oct 2018	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	15 Oct 2018	Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Prediction · 15 Oct 2018	Technology
Resolved true	Factual	15 Oct 2018	Four out of five initial coin offerings (ICOs) were scams. Factual · 15 Oct 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	13 Sep 2018	Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018	AI policy and governance
Unresolvable	Prediction	13 Sep 2018	The global economy's synchronized growth will lose momentum as unsustainable US fiscal policies start to phase out. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	13 Sep 2018	By 2020, conditions will be in place for another economic downturn. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	26 Jan 2018	Unlike the Internet, which quickly produced email, the World Wide Web and millions of commercial ventures, blockchain's only application, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, does not even fulfill its stated purpose. Factual · 26 Jan 2018	Technology
Mostly true	Factual	2009	Greenspan and the Fed spoke of irrational exuberance in tech stocks in 1996 without acting, and after the tech bubble burst cut rates to 1%, then to zero after the housing bust. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	2009	US real home prices doubled between 1996 and 2006, whereas historically home prices never rose more than inflation. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2009	Roubini began worrying about the US economy and financial system in 2006 after seeing an unsustainable housing bubble in home prices and mortgages. Factual · 2009	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Factual	2009	US housing quantities fell by 80% and home prices fell more than 25%, and prices were still falling at more than a 20% annualised rate in 2009. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2009	Roubini wrote about his concerns in summer 2006 and gave a speech to a few hundred International Monetary Fund staff in early September 2006. Factual · 2009	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2009	The Fed's philosophy was to not act against asset bubbles on the way up, as hard to identify and dangerous to prick, but to ease aggressively after they burst. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2009	After the 1987 stock market crash the Fed eased aggressively, giving the impression it would rescue markets, leading to talk of a 'Greenspan put'. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	2009	In 2006 people were sceptical of Roubini's predictions, talking instead of high growth, a Goldilocks economy and a gently deflating minor housing bubble. Factual · 2009	Their own work or organisation
Mostly true	Factual	2009	By mid-2006 US new home production had risen more than speculative demand, housing starts were peaking, new home sales were flattening and price increases were slowing. Factual · 2009	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	25 Sep 2006	Existing home sales figures released on 2006-09-25 showed falling home prices. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	25 Sep 2006	There is a glut of new condos in Manhattan and it is getting worse. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	US real home prices will fall 20 to 30 percent over the next three years or so, from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	The US housing market will have its biggest bust in decades. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	25 Sep 2006	As of September 2006 there was not yet hard data on exactly what was happening in the market, but home prices were sluggish. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	25 Sep 2006	In 2006 returns for many hedge funds are below those of safe Treasury bills. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	Foreign buyers purchasing US property in dollars will suffer currency capital losses as the dollar weakens against the euro and other currencies. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	Speculative housing demand will now disappear because prices are flattening and falling. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	25 Sep 2006	Real US home prices have increased by about 90 percent since 1997. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Sep 2006	US national real home prices may fall 20 to 30 percent. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Factual	25 Sep 2006	Over the 110 years since 1890, rising housing supply has been accompanied by falling prices. Factual · 25 Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	Sep 2006	US home prices would fall at least 20% and housing starts and demand at least 50% in the worst housing recession since the Great Depression. Prediction · Sep 2006	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	2006	The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Prediction · 2006	Economics and markets
Mixed	Prediction	2006	Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Prediction · 2006	Economics and markets

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Nouriel Roubini

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Factual AI policy and governance Political

“The Chinese prefer Trump to be re-elected as he is protectionist and unilateralist.”

Nouriel Roubini, writing on X about his Project Syndicate column 24 December 2019 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2019-12-24 (X)

The Chinese prefer Donald Trump to be re-elected US president because he is protectionist and unilateralist.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Test: as of Dec 2019, did the Chinese leadership and/or public prefer Trump's re-election, and was the reason his protectionism and unilateralism? True: contemporaneous evidence (official or elite statements, credible reporting on Beijing's preferences, Chinese public opinion surveys) shows a Chinese preference for Trump, attributed to his unilateralism weakening US alliances or US standing. Mostly true: the preference is documented, but the stated reasoning is only partly supported. Mixed: the evidence is split, for example some elites or netizens favoured Trump while officials or others did not. Mostly false: the claim is stated as fact but rests only on speculative commentary, or the preference is real but attributed to a different reason. False: credible evidence shows China preferred Trump's defeat.

Evidence

Hopes and Doubts in Beijing Foreign Affairs · 13 November 2020
“Although some Chinese decision-makers believed the chaos and bluster of another Trump term would strengthen China, they have also witnessed how the U.S. president’s unpredictable foreign policy pushes both countries closer and closer to conflict.”
Beijing Believes Trump Is Accelerating American Decline Center for a New American Security (CNAS) · 12 October 2020
“While Chinese leaders may wish for a reprieve from President Donald Trump’s recent aggressiveness, they also believe that he has weakened American power and accelerated American decline.”
Chinese Media: Trump Can Only Win by ‘Making Americans Hate China’ Breitbart · 30 April 2020
“President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China will “do anything they can to have me lose” his re-election bid in November because Beijing believes his presumptive Democrat opponent, Joe Biden, will lift trade and other restrictions Trump has imposed on China.”
How will China respond to Biden's tariffs? Look at Trump's trade war. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) · 30 May 2024
“We ran a series of public opinion surveys in China in 2019, uncovering a significant rise in protectionist sentiments among Chinese after the Trump administration raised the value of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports.”

Reasoning

All the evidence is dated 2020 or later. None of it shows Chinese leadership or public preferences as of December 2019. E1 and E2 describe mixed later views among Chinese decision-makers. E3 rests on Trump's own assertion, and E4 is about Chinese protectionist sentiment, not election preference. The ODNI assessment that the original note cited does not appear in any evidence item.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The Chinese prefer Donald Trump to be re-elected US president because he is protectionist and unilateralist.” (said 24 December 2019). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_770efd34f00e, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_770efd34f00e

Claims without a verdict

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