The Chinese prefer Donald Trump to be re-elected US president because he is protectionist and unilateralist.

Test: as of Dec 2019, did the Chinese leadership and/or public prefer Trump's re-election, and was the reason his protectionism and unilateralism? True: contemporaneous evidence (official or elite statements, credible reporting on Beijing's preferences, Chinese public opinion surveys) shows a Chinese preference for Trump, attributed to his unilateralism weakening US alliances or US standing. Mostly true: the preference is documented, but the stated reasoning is only partly supported. Mixed: the evidence is split, for example some elites or netizens favoured Trump while officials or others did not. Mostly false: the claim is stated as fact but rests only on speculative commentary, or the preference is real but attributed to a different reason. False: credible evidence shows China preferred Trump's defeat.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Hopes and Doubts in Beijing Foreign Affairs · 13 November 2020

   “Although some Chinese decision-makers believed the chaos and bluster of another Trump term would strengthen China, they have also witnessed how the U.S. president’s unpredictable foreign policy pushes both countries closer and closer to conflict.”

2. E2 Beijing Believes Trump Is Accelerating American Decline Center for a New American Security (CNAS) · 12 October 2020

   “While Chinese leaders may wish for a reprieve from President Donald Trump’s recent aggressiveness, they also believe that he has weakened American power and accelerated American decline.”

3. E3 Chinese Media: Trump Can Only Win by ‘Making Americans Hate China’ Breitbart · 30 April 2020

   “President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China will “do anything they can to have me lose” his re-election bid in November because Beijing believes his presumptive Democrat opponent, Joe Biden, will lift trade and other restrictions Trump has imposed on China.”

4. E4 How will China respond to Biden's tariffs? Look at Trump's trade war. Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) · 30 May 2024

   “We ran a series of public opinion surveys in China in 2019, uncovering a significant rise in protectionist sentiments among Chinese after the Trump administration raised the value of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports.”

All the evidence is dated 2020 or later. None of it shows Chinese leadership or public preferences as of December 2019. E1 and E2 describe mixed later views among Chinese decision-makers. E3 rests on Trump's own assertion, and E4 is about Chinese protectionist sentiment, not election preference. The ODNI assessment that the original note cited does not appear in any evidence item.