Despite a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025, uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs and other policies curtailed US growth in the second half of the year.

Judge with data available around November 2025. The claim has three parts: (1) there was a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025; (2) US growth was curtailed, meaning weaker, in the second half of 2025; (3) the slowdown was caused by uncertainty from Trump's tariffs and other policies. True if AI-related investment (data centres, information-processing equipment, software) grew strongly in 2025, H2 2025 US real GDP growth or activity indicators were weaker than in H1 or than the pre-tariff trend, and mainstream analysts (Fed, IMF, major forecasters) attribute the weakness substantially to tariff and policy uncertainty. Mostly true if all three hold but the slowdown is modest. Mixed if the AI boom holds but the evidence on an H2 slowdown is ambiguous, for example if Q3 growth was strong and a slowdown appears only in later or partial indicators. Mostly false if H2 growth was not weaker, or analysts attribute any weakness mainly to other factors, while the AI boom is real. False if H2 2025 US growth was clearly stronger than H1 or the trend, with no curtailment. Note that the claim refers to the second half of the year while being made in November, so use the data and forecasts available then, together with later releases for the same period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Fifty-Second Meeting October 16–17, 2025 - meetings.imf.org OECD (Written Statement by Mr. Cormann to the IMFC, 2025 IMF and World Bank Fall Meetings) · October 2025

   “Growth is expected to soften in the second half of this year, as frontloading of trade activities unwinds and higher tariff rates on imports to the United States and China dampen investment and trade growth. High geopolitical and policy uncertainty will also continue to weigh on domestic demand.”

2. E2 Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 17 November 2025

   “even excluding the temporary effects of the shutdown, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) has likely slowed in the second half of 2025 from its fast pace in the second quarter.”

3. E3 AI Showed Up In A Big Way In 2025 GDP Data Carson Group · 24 February 2026

   “On the hardware side, investment spending on IT equipment jumped by 28% in 2025 – for comparison, the 2010-2024 annual pace was just 6%.”

4. E4 AI Showed Up In A Big Way In 2025 GDP Data Carson Group · 24 February 2026

   “Note that our own proprietary leading economic index (LEI) for the US consistently told us that the economy was fine in 2025. Growth was running only slightly below trend across most of the year and has recently caught up to trend after a relatively weaker summer (in the aftermath of Liberation Day).”

AI-related investment boomed in 2025: IT equipment investment rose 28%, against a 6% annual pace in 2010–2024 (E3). In November 2025 Fed Governor Waller said real GDP growth had likely slowed in the second half from its fast Q2 pace (E2), and the OECD expected growth to soften (E1). However, Carson Group describes only a relatively weaker summer, with growth since caught up to trend (E4). On the cause, the OECD ties the softening to tariffs and policy uncertainty (E1), while the quoted part of Waller's speech gives no cause for the slowdown (E2). So the slowdown and its attribution are ambiguous.