Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply.

The claim has two parts: (a) global food prices were already rising sharply before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, and (b) the cause was desertification limiting food supply. True: FAO Food Price Index or similar data show a sharp rise from 2020 to early 2022, and authoritative analyses (FAO, World Bank, IFPRI, UNCCD) name desertification or land degradation as a principal driver of that rise. Mostly true: prices rose sharply before the invasion, and climate-related drought, desertification or land degradation is recognised as a significant contributing driver, though alongside others such as pandemic supply disruption, energy and fertiliser costs, and demand. Mostly false: prices did rise sharply before the invasion, but the analyses attribute the rise mainly to other factors and treat desertification as a negligible or unrecognised driver of the 2020–22 rise. False: food prices were not rising notably before the invasion.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What's really happening? IFPRI · 11 February 2022

   “Food prices are skyrocketing around the world. In January, international prices for major food items climbed to a level near the heights of the global food price crises of 2007-08 and 2010-11, according to the FAO Food Price Index (Figure 1).”

2. E2 COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What's really happening? IFPRI · 11 February 2022

   “The 2021 surge in food prices is largely associated with the recovery in food demand from the global COVID-19 recession and temporary disruptions in logistics, rather than with severe food supply disruptions or continued trade restrictions.”

3. E3 IFPRI and CGIAR at Borlaug Dialogue 2023: Food system repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war IFPRI · 14 December 2023

   “As shown in Figure 1, energy, fertilizer, and food prices were already rising due to various shocks before the February 2022 Russian invasion, then soared in the following months.”

4. E4 ZEF-Discussion Papers on Development Policy No. 339: The Changing Drivers of Food Inflation – Macroeconomics, Inflation, and War Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn · February 2024

   “A series of extreme climatic events in 2021-2022 also reduced production of some agricultural products.”

IFPRI shows that food prices rose sharply before the February 2022 invasion. By January 2022 international food prices were near the peaks of the 2007-08 and 2010-11 crises (E1), and prices were 'already rising due to various shocks' before the invasion (E3). On the cause, IFPRI attributes the 2021 surge mainly to recovering demand after the COVID-19 recession and to temporary logistics disruptions, 'rather than with severe food supply disruptions' (E2). A university paper says a series of extreme climatic events in 2021-2022 reduced production of some agricultural products (E4). None of the analyses names desertification as a driver. The first part of the claim holds, but its stated cause is not supported, which fits the criteria for mostly false.