ClaimsPeople

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini is an author and Project Syndicate columnist who is Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor Emeritus at NYU Stern, widely known as 'Dr. Doom'.

294 claims collected, 146 researched, 66 resolved. Report of 4 November 2026, method 0.1.0+c876030c.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    72 64 80

    Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    40 27 53

    Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

18 claims

18 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Resolved false Prediction 30 Jun 2024 The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024 AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false Prediction 27 Oct 2023 US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 3 Jan 2023 China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Other global risks
Mostly false Prediction 3 Jan 2023 Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 6 Nov 2022 The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 28 Oct 2022 Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 28 Oct 2022 UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 15 Oct 2018 Now that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have plummeted from 2017's valuations, the techno-utopian mystique of distributed-ledger technologies should be next. Prediction · 15 Oct 2018 Technology
Mostly false Prediction 13 Sep 2018 Unlike in 2008, governments will lack the policy tools to manage the next downturn around 2020. Prediction · 13 Sep 2018 AI policy and governance
Mostly true Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The housing bust will trigger an economy-wide US recession in 2007. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 There is going to be a huge glut. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mostly false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 The US will have a national recession in early 2007 and Wall Street profits and bonuses will sharply drop. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved false Prediction 25 Sep 2006 New York City home prices will be 5 to 10 percent lower on average a year from September 2006. Prediction · 25 Sep 2006 Economics and markets
Resolved true Prediction 2006 The housing bust would lead to a banking and financial crisis as homeowners defaulted on mortgages and banks failed. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Mixed Prediction 2006 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would go bankrupt and the credit crunch would lead to a US recession by some time in 2007. Prediction · 2006 Economics and markets
Back to the list

Nouriel Roubini

Open its page

Prediction Economics and markets

“Expect even worse news from new home sales later this week.”

Nouriel Roubini, blog author 25 September 2006 The Coming Housing and Economic Crash: My Interview Today with New York Magazine (EconoMonitor)

New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

What would count as true or false

Compare the Census Bureau's new home sales release in the week of 25 September 2006 (August 2006 data) with the NAR existing home sales release of the same week, as first published (this is a prediction about the news that week). Measures: month-over-month change in sales, year-over-year change in sales, and year-over-year change in median price. True: new home sales were weaker than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change. Mostly true: new home sales had the larger annual decline and also weaker prices, but did not have the weaker monthly change. Mixed: the measures split, with new home sales worse on one main sales measure and better on the other, and price evidence not settling it. Mostly false: new home sales were better on most measures, being worse only on a secondary one such as price. False: new home sales were better than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change.

Evidence

  1. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “Transactions were down 12.6 percent compared to the sales pace of a year ago.”
  2. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “Sales of pre-owned homes fell 0.5 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units -- just about where economists were expecting.”
  3. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “The median national price for homes sold in August was $225,000, 1.7 percent lower than the level from August 2005 ($229,000).”
  4. Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006
    “We're going to get a look at new-home sales numbers on Wednesday, and we should expect more of the same.”
  5. New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006
    “The sales rate for new single-family homes dropped 17.4 percent in August and the median price dropped 1.3 percent compared to August 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported today.”
  6. New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006
    “New homes sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.05 million in August, which is 4.1 percent above the revised July rate.”
  7. Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006
    “The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units. That was the fifth straight monthly decline and left sales 12.6 percent below the pace of a year ago.”
  8. Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006
    “The median price of a home sold last month fell to $225,000. That was down 2.2 percent from July and down 1.7 percent from August 2005.”

Reasoning

The Census release of 27 September 2006 showed new home sales down 17.4% from August 2005 but up 4.1% from July, with the median price down 1.3% from a year earlier (E5, E6). NAR's existing home release of 25 September showed sales down 0.5% from July and 12.6% from a year earlier, with the median price down 1.7% (E1, E2, E3, E7, E8). New home sales were therefore worse on the annual sales change but better on the monthly change. The price comparison favours new homes and does not settle the split, so under the criteria the verdict is mixed.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data.” (said 25 September 2006). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_933cdcebf15d, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_933cdcebf15d

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nouriel Roubini? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.