New home sales data released later in the week of 2006-09-25 will be even worse than the existing home sales data.

Compare the Census Bureau's new home sales release in the week of 25 September 2006 (August 2006 data) with the NAR existing home sales release of the same week, as first published (this is a prediction about the news that week). Measures: month-over-month change in sales, year-over-year change in sales, and year-over-year change in median price. True: new home sales were weaker than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change. Mostly true: new home sales had the larger annual decline and also weaker prices, but did not have the weaker monthly change. Mixed: the measures split, with new home sales worse on one main sales measure and better on the other, and price evidence not settling it. Mostly false: new home sales were better on most measures, being worse only on a secondary one such as price. False: new home sales were better than existing home sales on both the monthly and the annual sales change.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006

   “Transactions were down 12.6 percent compared to the sales pace of a year ago.”

2. E2 Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006

   “Sales of pre-owned homes fell 0.5 percent in August to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units -- just about where economists were expecting.”

3. E3 Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006

   “The median national price for homes sold in August was $225,000, 1.7 percent lower than the level from August 2005 ($229,000).”

4. E4 Buyer's Market? Existing-Home Prices, Sales Fall ABC News · 25 September 2006

   “We're going to get a look at new-home sales numbers on Wednesday, and we should expect more of the same.”

5. E5 New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006

   “The sales rate for new single-family homes dropped 17.4 percent in August and the median price dropped 1.3 percent compared to August 2005, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported today.”

6. E6 New-home sales drop 17.4% Inman · 27 September 2006

   “New homes sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.05 million in August, which is 4.1 percent above the revised July rate.”

7. E7 Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006

   “The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes and condominiums dropped 0.5 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million units. That was the fifth straight monthly decline and left sales 12.6 percent below the pace of a year ago.”

8. E8 Existing home sales fall for fifth straight month NBC News (MSNBC) · 25 September 2006

   “The median price of a home sold last month fell to $225,000. That was down 2.2 percent from July and down 1.7 percent from August 2005.”

The Census release of 27 September 2006 showed new home sales down 17.4% from August 2005 but up 4.1% from July, with the median price down 1.3% from a year earlier (E5, E6). NAR's existing home release of 25 September showed sales down 0.5% from July and 12.6% from a year earlier, with the median price down 1.7% (E1, E2, E3, E7, E8). New home sales were therefore worse on the annual sales change but better on the monthly change. The price comparison favours new homes and does not settle the split, so under the criteria the verdict is mixed.