ClaimsNouriel Roubini

“I’ve made the argument, and this is not the conventional wisdom, that the recession is not going to be short and shallow”

Nouriel Roubini, economist, interviewee 6 November 2022 Nouriel Roubini interview: recession, inflation, Great Depression (Fortune) archived copy

Prediction Economics and markets

The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

Horizon: end of 2024. The claim assumes a US recession and says it will not be short and shallow. True: an NBER-dated recession began between November 2022 and end-2024 and was either long (more than about 12 months) or deep (peak-to-trough real GDP fall of more than about 2%, or unemployment up by more than about 3 points). Mostly true: a recession happened and was clearly more than mild on one of these dimensions, though somewhat below the thresholds. Mixed: a recession happened that was moderate, borderline on both length and depth. Mostly false: there was only a short, shallow recession, or only a technical or borderline contraction. False: no US recession happened by the horizon, or a recession happened that was clearly short and shallow.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (1)

  1. E1 Hard landing and crisis — Nouriel Roubini predictionscorecard.com

    “The US had no recession (NBER dates no peak after Feb 2020; BEA: real GDP grew 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024)”

Reasoning

The criteria resolve the claim false if no US recession occurred by the end of 2024. E1 is an independent scoring page. It states that the US had no recession, that the NBER dates no business-cycle peak after February 2020, and that BEA real GDP grew 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024. The recession the prediction assumed did not happen within the horizon, so the claim resolved false.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The coming US recession will not be short and shallow.” (said 6 November 2022). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_5f726390065d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5f726390065d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nouriel Roubini, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nouriel Roubini

  1. Mostly false Prediction 27 October 2023
    “As I predicted in early September in an interview with Bloomberg”

    US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023).

  2. Mostly false Prediction 3 January 2023
    “They are talking tough [but if] faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, they’re going to wimp out.”

    Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So it’s much worse than the ‘70s, and it’s probably as bad as during the GFC.”

    The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

  4. Resolved false Prediction 6 November 2022
    “So history suggests it’s going to be near mission impossible to avoid a hard landing.”

    History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy.

  5. Mostly false Prediction 28 October 2022
    “Central banks, starting with the Bank of England have already started to blink, they’re going to wimp out, and it will cause inflation to go above 2%”

    Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%.

All of them

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