Nouriel Roubini: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

72 64 80

Medium confidence, 48 factual claims resolved. From 14 documents, 2006 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 29 unresolvable.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

40 27 53

Medium confidence, 18 predictions resolved. From 9 documents, 2006 to 2024; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 46 unresolvable. 5 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions

All types combined: 63 (likely 56 to 70, high confidence), from 66 claims: 48 factual claims, 18 predictions. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nouriel Roubini's claims

146 claims · page 1 of 2

146 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mostly true	Factual	Oct 2026	The 2026 Iran War caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s. Factual · Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	Oct 2026	Despite rising risks, uncertainties and large negative supply shocks over the last two years, stock markets and the global economy have held up quite well. Factual · Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	Oct 2026	US President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs of April 2, 2025 were followed in 2026 by the Iran War. Factual · Oct 2026	AI policy and governance
Not yet due	Prediction	Oct 2026	Global growth should improve in 2027 and inflation should fall, after the economy weathered major trade and energy shocks over the previous two years. Prediction · Oct 2026	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	Oct 2026	Political and policy-driven risks to the global economic outlook are less likely than the benign baseline scenario. Prediction · Oct 2026	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	Apr 2026	Technological advances such as AI will drive the world economy over the next 10 to 20 years, regardless of geopolitics, climate change or populism, and will be positive for the world. Prediction · Apr 2026	AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable	Factual	Nov 2025	In 2025 there was a massive boom in AI-related investment in the US, while policy-induced uncertainty and disruptions to official data releases clouded the economic picture. Factual · Nov 2025	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	Nov 2025	The longest-ever US government shutdown disrupted official employment and inflation data, further clouding policymakers' perceptions. Factual · Nov 2025	AI policy and governance
Mixed	Factual	Nov 2025	Despite a massive boom in AI-related investment in 2025, uncertainty caused by President Trump's tariffs and other policies curtailed US growth in the second half of the year. Factual · Nov 2025	Economics and markets
Not yet due	Prediction	Nov 2025	The US economy could follow one of three possible paths going into 2026, and the most likely scenario is also the most positive. Prediction · Nov 2025	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	30 Jun 2024	The RN (Le Pen's party) will win an absolute majority in the 2024 French parliamentary elections, with 60% probability as the baseline scenario. Prediction · 30 Jun 2024	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Factual	30 Jun 2024	Official polls and most analysts predicted a hung parliament as their baseline for the 2024 French parliamentary elections. Factual · 30 Jun 2024	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Dec 2023	A few dozen Russian politicians and regime-connected people have died by falling from buildings. Factual · 28 Dec 2023	Other
Unresolvable	Factual	15 Dec 2023	A Chinese spy used Binance to pay his agent, a corrupt European politician, in crypto, as reported by the Financial Times on 2023-12-15. Factual · 15 Dec 2023	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	29 Nov 2023	Roubini published a recent Project Syndicate piece discussing the rise in economic threats and their interactions with social, political, environmental and technological developments. Factual · 29 Nov 2023	Their own work or organisation
Unresolvable	Prediction	10 Nov 2023	The Israel-Hamas conflict can escalate into a regional war as Israel campaigns to eliminate Hamas. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	10 Nov 2023	If the Gaza war escalates into a regional war, global fallout would include a 1970s-style oil shock, crashing equities and a stagflationary recession. Prediction · 10 Nov 2023	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	27 Oct 2023	US stocks could see a 10% correction (predicted in a Bloomberg interview in early September 2023). Prediction · 27 Oct 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	18 Oct 2023	In a risk scenario, China blockades Taiwan while the US is bogged down in the Ukraine and Middle East wars. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	18 Oct 2023	In a risk scenario, Iran unleashes Hezbollah to prevent Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Factual	18 Oct 2023	Preliminary evidence indicates a Palestinian rocket caused the October 2023 explosion at a Gaza hospital. Factual · 18 Oct 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	18 Oct 2023	Roubini's baseline view was that the Israel-Hamas conflict would stay confined to Israel and Gaza. He named a risk scenario in which Iran would unleash Hezbollah to stop Israel from destroying Hamas. Prediction · 18 Oct 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Japan stagnated with essentially deflation and mediocre economic growth for 20 years because it kept zombie firms alive too long. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	3 Jan 2023	China produces or processes most of the rare-earth metals used in electric vehicles. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	The desirable outcome, in which good policies, good leadership, some luck and massive technological innovation allow the world to address these threats, looks less likely than the dystopian outcome. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Other global risks
Resolved true	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	China will respond strongly to US technological and economic containment rather than take it lightly. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Other global risks
Mostly false	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Food prices were already spiking before the invasion because desertification in many parts of the world limits the food supply. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	An end to the war in Ukraine would not make much difference to the world's biggest economic problems. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	Roubini said his worry is that there will be a very severe debt crisis. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	3 Jan 2023	All the zombie institutions that survived because of negative interest rates, quantitative easing and credit easing now face rising debt servicing ratios. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Renewable capacity has not kept pace with the reduction in fossil fuel capacity, creating a structural energy supply problem. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Climate policy and pressure on Big Oil have led to a spike in fossil fuel prices regardless of events in Ukraine. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	Roubini said he felt that this time around "we'll have to go through the mess", adding that there is no simple solution to these threats. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	3 Jan 2023	The global debt-to-GDP ratio was 100% in the 1970s, while in advanced economies today it is 420% of GDP and rising. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Tech-related stocks, as long-duration assets, are hit by rising interest rates more than shorter-duration assets. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	A confrontation in Taiwan would shock the global economy far more than any spike in oil and food prices. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	Firms in AI, machine learning, Big Data, 5G, 6G, IoT, cloud, quantum, biotech and tech generally will do well in the future. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Technology
Mostly false	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	Faced with a debt crisis and an economic crisis, central banks will back down from tough talk and not raise rates further. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Jan 2023	Roubini said he worries that the Great Moderation is over and that a Great Deflationary Debt Crisis and instability is upon us, as a medium- to long-term phenomenon rather than one lasting a year or two. Prediction · 3 Jan 2023	AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Corporate debt and shadow bank lending to companies built up over the last 10 to 15 years, and became even more extreme after Covid-19. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	3 Jan 2023	Fifty percent of the world's semiconductors and 80% of high-end semiconductors are produced in Taiwan. Factual · 3 Jan 2023	AI compute, hardware and data
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Roubini said he did not think a variant of another Great Depression could be ruled out if the threats he describes in his book were to materialize. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	The coming stagflationary debt crisis will be much worse than the 1970s and probably as bad as the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	6 Nov 2022	During the 2008 Great Financial Crisis the S&P 500 fell cumulatively by about 50%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Millennials, Gen X and Gen Z may be the first generations to be worse off than their parents in income, jobs, benefits and economic and wealth security. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved false	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	History suggests it will be nearly impossible for the Fed to avoid a hard landing in the US economy. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	6 Nov 2022	The top 10% of Americans hold 80% of US equity, the top 1% about 50%, and the bottom 80% hold almost none. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	6 Nov 2022	Roubini's book MegaThreats extensively discusses the threat to liberal democracies from backlash against trade, technology and social and political institutions. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Their own work or organisation
Resolved false	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	The coming US recession will not be short and shallow. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	6 Nov 2022	Providing $1,000 per month to every American would cost the US about 20% of GDP. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	US stocks will fall much lower than their November 2022 level before flattening out. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Even in a mild recession the US stock market has to fall 30% from its peak, meaning about another 10% down from the November 2022 level. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Developments connected to machine learning will cause massive inequality, with owners of capital and highly skilled labor winning while everybody else loses. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	AI, the economy and work
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Once the Fed stops raising rates or pivots to cuts, gold will act as a hedge. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Mixed	Factual	6 Nov 2022	In a typical short and shallow recession the S&P 500 usually falls by at least 30%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	6 Nov 2022	In November 2022 a one-year US Treasury yields roughly 4%. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	6 Nov 2022	Stocks may enter a period like 1973-1982, when they dropped and stayed very low for a long time. Prediction · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	6 Nov 2022	Historically, every time inequality reached this level it led to civil war and revolution. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Philosophy, ethics and society
Unresolvable	Factual	6 Nov 2022	In the last 60 years of US history, there has been no episode with inflation above 5% and unemployment below 5% in which the Fed started raising rates and avoided a hard landing. Factual · 6 Nov 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Oct 2022	The US debt-to-GDP ratio in 2022 is higher than after the Great Depression and World War II. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	He does not expect hyperinflation or double-digit inflation in the advanced economies. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	The 1970s stagflation was not a debt crisis and did not involve a geopolitical depression. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	Over the longer term, AI will make humans almost completely obsolete. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	AI timelines and forecasting
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	There will be inflation, recession and stagflation plus a stagflation-debt crisis causing many people to go bankrupt. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly false	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	Central banks, starting with the Bank of England, will wimp out on tightening, causing inflation to go above 2%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	There is a very real risk of a return to 1930s-40s conditions of economic collapse, massive pandemic and real wars. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Mostly false	Factual	28 Oct 2022	25% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from livestock. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Oct 2022	Until recently debt servicing costs were close to zero or negative despite unsustainably high debt ratios. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	UK mortgage rates may double because of reckless fiscal policy and debt build-up. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Oct 2022	Quantitative easing kept debt servicing ratios low, and credit easing kept spreads low on everything from mortgages to high-yield high-grade commercial paper. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	In the 1970s there was a negative stagflationary shock with inflation followed by recession. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	Iran is becoming nuclear, which Israel regards as an existential threat it cannot accept. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	The US and China will eventually be on a collision course over Taiwan or the East and South China Seas. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Mixed	Factual	28 Oct 2022	Until now there was an insolvency problem but no liquidity problem to trigger it, because interest rates were so low. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	28 Oct 2022	China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are revisionist powers rejecting the post-World War II international order. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	The West is already experiencing asymmetric cyber warfare with China, Russia and Korea. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	With interest rates rising, the mother of all debt crises is going to occur. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	Climate change causes zoonotic disease, and pandemics result from destruction of animal ecosystems. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Biosecurity
Not yet due	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	If the major threats are not acted on within the next decade, the world will reach a point of no return. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Not yet due	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	There may be a global conflict in the next decade. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Mostly true	Factual	28 Oct 2022	China is not a declining power and has an authoritarian regime built around state capital. Factual · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	If the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheet cracks, sea levels will rise 10 feet within about 4 months. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	If inflation gets de-anchored, it can rise from around 2% to 4% or even 5% or more. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	28 Oct 2022	If inflation rises from 2% to 6%, 10-year US Treasury yields would rise to about 8%. Prediction · 28 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	25 Oct 2022	The era of the Great Moderation, with okay growth and low 2% inflation, is over. Factual · 25 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Oct 2022	The economy is entering an era of stagflation, debt instability and crisis. Prediction · 25 Oct 2022	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	25 Oct 2022	As of October 2022 the world faces major mega threats: monetary, social, political, geopolitical, environmental, health, trade and technology. Factual · 25 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	25 Oct 2022	Unless the mega threats are addressed, the world is headed towards disaster. Prediction · 25 Oct 2022	Other global risks
Unresolvable	Prediction	21 Sep 2021	The rosy scenario priced into markets may prove a pipe dream given high debt, supply-side risks and loose policies. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	21 Sep 2021	The end game of the global debt trap will be a stagflationary debt crisis. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	21 Sep 2021	Over time, negative supply shocks could turn mild stagflation into severe stagflation. Prediction · 21 Sep 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	14 Sep 2021	As of 2021-09-14, US equities were down 4% from their peak. Factual · 14 Sep 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Factual	14 Sep 2021	As of September 2021, Mohamed El-Erian, Ken Rogoff and Larry Summers were talking about rising risks of stagflation. Factual · 14 Sep 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	3 Aug 2021	The Biden administration's new neo-populist economic doctrine will be risky. Prediction · 3 Aug 2021	AI policy and governance
Mostly true	Factual	21 Jul 2021	On 2021-07-21 the Air Quality Index in New York City was 175, rated unhealthy, due to haze from West Coast fires. Factual · 21 Jul 2021	Other
Mostly true	Factual	20 Jul 2021	On 2021-07-20 the Bitcoin price was below $30,000, putting most retail buyers who entered after March 2021 at a loss. Factual · 20 Jul 2021	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	20 Jul 2021	Bitcoin's price should fall much lower than below $30,000 based on fundamentals. Prediction · 20 Jul 2021	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Factual	13 Nov 2020	Many central banks, including China's, Sweden's and the eurozone's, are starting to consider creating a central bank digital currency. Factual · 13 Nov 2020	Economics and markets
Unresolvable	Prediction	30 Dec 2019	A Minsky Moment (financial crisis) is unlikely in China; instead its growth will slow steadily. Prediction · 30 Dec 2019	Economics and markets
Resolved true	Factual	27 Dec 2019	The latest issue of CIRSD's Horizons magazine includes Roubini's article "The Specter of Deglobalization and the Thucydides Trap". Factual · 27 Dec 2019	Their own work or organisation

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Nouriel Roubini

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Prediction AI policy and governance Political

“But while the Biden has a much better handle on the issues, the new doctrine will be risky”

Nouriel Roubini, summarising his own article 3 August 2021 Post by @Nouriel on X, 2021-08-03 (X)

The Biden administration's new neo-populist economic doctrine will be risky.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Reasoning

'Risky' is vague and has no horizon, so no record could settle it.

Cite this claim

Nouriel Roubini, “The Biden administration's new neo-populist economic doctrine will be risky.” (said 3 August 2021). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_4b73d4f4fda2, method 0.1.0+c876030c. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4b73d4f4fda2

Claims without a verdict

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