ClaimsPeople

Nate Silver

Nate Silver is an election forecaster and writer who founded FiveThirtyEight and now publishes the Silver Bulletin newsletter.

617 claims collected, 163 researched, 84 resolved. Report of 10 November 2026, method 0.1.0+28da144b.

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

  • Factual claims

    Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

    82 76 88

    High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

    See the factual claims

  • Predictions

    Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

    61 47 75

    Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.

    Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

    See the predictions

  • Promises

    Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

    67 46 85

    Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

    Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

    See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

2 claims

2 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
VerdictKindSaidClaimTopic
Mostly false Prediction 8 Sep 2023 Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
Mostly false Prediction 8 Sep 2023 If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 Other
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Nate Silver

Open its page

Prediction Other Political

“I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin)

Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

What would count as true or false

This is a ranking of likelihoods, judged on the actual winner of the 2024 presidential election. True: Biden wins, so the top-ranked outcome happened. Mostly false: Trump wins, so the second-ranked outcome happened and the claim's main judgement was wrong. False: someone other than Biden or Trump wins, so the lowest-ranked outcome happened.

Evidence

  1. Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state | The Associated Press The Associated Press · 26 November 2024
    “At 5:34 a.m. ET on Wednesday, The Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the U.S. presidential race.”
  2. Trump wins the White House in a political comeback rooted in appeals to frustrated voters Denver Post (AP story) · 5 November 2024
    “Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago”
  3. United States presidential election of 2024 | Background, Candidates, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Indictments, & Facts | Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica · 29 October 2026
    “held on November 5, 2024, in which former Republican president Donald Trump (2017–21) defeated the Democratic nominee, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.”
  4. United States presidential election of 2024 | Background, Candidates, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Indictments, & Facts | Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica · 29 October 2026
    “Under intense pressure from prominent Democrats who feared he would lose the election, Biden withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Harris as his replacement.”

Reasoning

Independent sources report that Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election (E1, E2, E3). He defeated the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, after Biden withdrew (E3, E4). Trump was the claim's second-ranked outcome, so the criteria make this mostly false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_299c53eb3ab1, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_299c53eb3ab1

Claims without a verdict

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