ClaimsNate Silver

“I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin) archived copy

Prediction Other Political

Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

What would count as true or false

This is a ranking of likelihoods, judged on the actual winner of the 2024 presidential election. True: Biden wins, so the top-ranked outcome happened. Mostly false: Trump wins, so the second-ranked outcome happened and the claim's main judgement was wrong. False: someone other than Biden or Trump wins, so the lowest-ranked outcome happened.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Calling the 2024 presidential race state by state | The Associated Press The Associated Press · 26 November 2024

    “At 5:34 a.m. ET on Wednesday, The Associated Press declared Donald Trump the winner of the U.S. presidential race.”

  2. E2 Trump wins the White House in a political comeback rooted in appeals to frustrated voters Denver Post (AP story) · 5 November 2024

    “Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States on Wednesday, an extraordinary comeback for a former president who refused to accept defeat four years ago”

  3. E3 United States presidential election of 2024 | Background, Candidates, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Indictments, & Facts | Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica · 29 October 2026

    “held on November 5, 2024, in which former Republican president Donald Trump (2017–21) defeated the Democratic nominee, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.”

  4. E4 United States presidential election of 2024 | Background, Candidates, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Indictments, & Facts | Britannica Encyclopaedia Britannica · 29 October 2026

    “Under intense pressure from prominent Democrats who feared he would lose the election, Biden withdrew his candidacy and endorsed Harris as his replacement.”

Reasoning

Independent sources report that Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election (E1, E2, E3). He defeated the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, after Biden withdrew (E3, E4). Trump was the claim's second-ranked outcome, so the criteria make this mostly false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_299c53eb3ab1, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_299c53eb3ab1

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

  2. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

    Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”

    In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.

  4. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.