ClaimsNate Silver

“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”

Nate Silver, editor in chief, writing for FiveThirtyEight 2015 Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (FiveThirtyEight)

Prediction Other Political

Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

Judged at the 2016 Republican National Convention (July 2016). True: Donald Trump was not the 2016 Republican presidential nominee. False: Trump formally won the 2016 Republican nomination. Because the claim states one outcome, no intermediate verdict applies unless the nomination was left unresolved, which would be unusual.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Trump Crowned GOP Nominee, Vows to 'Win in November' - Roll Call Roll Call · 19 July 2016

    “Donald Trump officially clinched the Republican nomination for president on Tuesday, culminating an unexpected and tumultuous political ascent that energized dissatisfied Americans and alarmed the establishment.”

  2. E2 The Green Papers: Commentary The Green Papers · 19 July 2016

    “Convention Chair Paul Ryan takes the dais to formally declare Trump and Pence nominated President and Vice-President, respectively”

  3. E3 The Green Papers: Commentary The Green Papers · 19 July 2016

    “Totals announced by Ryan: Trump 1725; Cruz 475; Kasich 120; Rubio 114; Carson 7; Bush 3; Paul 2”

  4. E4 FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia Wikipedia

    “When Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee in May 2016, New York Times media columnist Jim Rutenberg wrote that”

Reasoning

Roll Call reported on 2016-07-19 that Donald Trump officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination (E1), and The Green Papers records the convention chair formally declaring Trump nominated (E2). The Green Papers records that Convention Chair Paul Ryan formally declared Trump the nominee, with an announced delegate total of 1,725 for Trump against 475 for Cruz (E2, E3). Wikipedia also notes that Trump had become the presumptive nominee in May 2016 (E4). The prediction that Trump would not win the nomination therefore resolved false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.” (said 2015). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_9451faeaefea, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_9451faeaefea

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Nate Silver, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Nate Silver

  1. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”

    Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning.

  2. Mostly false Prediction 8 September 2023
    “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

    If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

  3. Resolved false Prediction 2015
    “Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”

    In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.

  4. Mixed Prediction 8 April 2025
    “Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”

    Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam.

  5. Mostly true Prediction 13 August 2024
    “I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”

    Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.