In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.
Resolved false The record shows it did not happen or was not so.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True: Trump does not win the 2016 Republican nomination. Mostly true: Trump is denied the nomination at a contested convention after leading with a plurality. Mostly false: Trump wins the nomination only after securing a clear majority of both primary votes and delegates, so the claim's narrow plurality condition was never tested but its point that the party would stop him failed. False: Trump wins the nomination with only a plurality of total primary votes (or without a majority until rivals withdrew), and the party does not unite to block him.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Never Trump movement - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Following unsuccessful attempts by some delegates at the Republican National Convention to block his nomination, Trump became the Republican Party's 2016 nominee for president on July 18, 2016.”
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E2 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Results by County - Brilliant Maps Brilliant Maps · 6 April 2016
“Donald Trump: 1,441 (44.9% of vote)”
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E3 How Few Votes It Takes to Become a Presumptive Nominee - FairVote FairVote · 4 May 2016
“Trump has won 10,706,130 votes out of 26,590,345 counted in Republican contests so far.”
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E4 Never Trump movement - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“The candidates did not unite and Trump continued to win primaries.”
Reasoning
E1 states that Trump became the 2016 Republican nominee on July 18, 2016, after attempts by some convention delegates to block him failed. E3 reports that as of May 4, 2016, Trump had won 10,706,130 of 26,590,345 votes cast in Republican contests, about 40%. E2's primary-results page gives him 44.9% of the vote. Neither figure is a majority. E4 states that the candidates did not unite and Trump continued to win primaries, and E1 records that attempts by some delegates to block his nomination at the convention were unsuccessful; with the available tallies showing less than a majority of primary votes [E2][E3], this fits the criteria's description of false.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him.” (said 2015). Verdict: resolved false. Reliability API, claim c_f98056f32ec1, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_f98056f32ec1
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nate Silver
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Mostly false
“I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”
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Mostly false
“If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”
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Resolved false
“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”
Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
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Mixed
“Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”
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Mostly true
“I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.