If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
A strongly hedged, conditional prediction about earliest timing. 'Presumptive nominee' means a candidate whose remaining major rivals have withdrawn, or who has a projected majority of pledged delegates, as reported by AP or major outlets. If the conditions held (Trump did well, e.g. won or clearly led in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden had no disqualifying snafu): True if both Trump and Biden became presumptive nominees by 2024-02-29. Mostly false if one or both became presumptive only after February, however soon after. False if the conditions held but the nominations stayed seriously contested well beyond early spring. If only one of them became presumptive by end of February, that is mostly false. If the conditions did not hold, the conditional was not tested; judges should mark it unresolvable rather than true or false.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Biden, Trump both become parties’ presumptive nominees KTVU · 12 March 2024
“President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump have now unofficially clinched their respective party’s nomination after securing enough delegates Tuesday night.”
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E2 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Trump became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in American history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in the same election cycle.”
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E3 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election.”
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E4 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Despite calls to drop out, Haley declined to withdraw from the race after the primary.”
Reasoning
The condition was met: Trump won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which was held on January 23, 2024 (E2, E3). The evidence shows no snafu for Biden. However, Haley declined to withdraw after New Hampshire (E4). A report dated March 12, 2024 says Biden and Trump had "now" clinched their nominations by securing enough delegates that night (E1), so both became presumptive nominees after February rather than by February 29. Under the criteria, becoming presumptive soon after February counts as mostly false.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_e22962bb7fc7, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e22962bb7fc7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More prediction claims by Nate Silver
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Mostly false
“I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning).”
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Resolved false
“Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination.”
Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
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Resolved false
“Nor, in all likelihood, could Trump win with a plurality of votes or delegates because the Republican Party, which controls the nomination process, would unite against him.”
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Mixed
“Children's toys are gonna become much more expensive because they're made in countries like Vietnam in Southeast Asia that are heavily taraffed.”
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Mostly true
“I think people might understand with Kamala Harris that it's inherently a difficult circumstance and a little bit of a long shot bid, but that her chances are probably better than Biden.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.