Nate Silver: checked claims

Scores by kind of claim

Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.

Factual claims

Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

82 76 88

High confidence, 63 factual claims resolved. From 19 documents, 2012 to 2026; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 42 unresolvable, 7 checkable only against their own records.

See the factual claims
Predictions

Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

61 47 75

Medium confidence, 16 predictions resolved. From 8 documents, 2015 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 12 unresolvable. 10 more fall due later.
Does not yet allow for how likely each prediction was when made.

See the predictions
Promises

Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?

67 46 85

Low confidence, 5 promises resolved. From 4 documents, 2022 to 2025; 19 documents sampled from 35 candidates found.

Not scored: 7 unresolvable.

See the promises

All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.

Nate Silver's claims

16 claims

16 claims, sorted by newest said. Choose a claim to read it in full.
Verdict	Kind	Said	Claim	Topic
Mixed	Prediction	8 Apr 2025	Children's toys will become much more expensive in the US because they are made in heavily tariffed countries such as Vietnam. Prediction · 8 Apr 2025	Economics and markets
Mostly true	Prediction	13 Aug 2024	Kamala Harris's bid is inherently difficult and a little bit of a long shot, but her chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are probably better than Joe Biden's were. Prediction · 13 Aug 2024	AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false	Prediction	8 Sep 2023	Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023	Other
Mixed	Prediction	8 Sep 2023	Most US voters will not start paying attention to the 2024 presidential election until nine months to a year after September 2023. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023	AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly false	Prediction	8 Sep 2023	If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023	Other
Resolved true	Prediction	30 Jun 2022	Republicans are heavy favorites to win the House in the 2022 midterms, and the Senate is a toss-up. Prediction · 30 Jun 2022	AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true	Prediction	30 Jun 2022	If Republicans take control of the House in 2023, they are pretty likely to hold COVID panels or investigations. Prediction · 30 Jun 2022	AI policy and governance
Resolved true	Prediction	9 Jun 2022	Democrats could hold the Senate in the 2022 midterms if GOP candidates are subpar in a couple of key states or Democrats win the closest races. Prediction · 9 Jun 2022	AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved true	Prediction	9 Jun 2022	Democrats holding the House in the 2022 midterms would require an unlikely change in the national environment. Prediction · 9 Jun 2022	AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true	Prediction	29 Jun 2021	It seems very likely that people who received one dose of the J&J COVID vaccine would benefit from a Pfizer or Moderna booster. Prediction · 29 Jun 2021	Biosecurity
Resolved true	Prediction	11 Jun 2021	The US could see a rise in COVID cases because of the Delta variant, as in the UK. Prediction · 11 Jun 2021	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Prediction	28 Mar 2020	The coronavirus peak in the NYC metro area will probably come sooner than elsewhere in the US. Prediction · 28 Mar 2020	Biosecurity
Mostly true	Prediction	25 Sep 2019	Nate Silver guessed that the public would see the contents of the Ukraine call transcript as very inappropriate conduct and would find the White House's quid pro quo spin unresponsive to their concerns. Prediction · 25 Sep 2019	AI timelines and forecasting
Mostly true	Prediction	23 Sep 2019	Nate Silver said he still tended not to think public opinion on impeaching Trump would move much, but that it was hard to know. Prediction · 23 Sep 2019	AI timelines and forecasting
Resolved false	Prediction	2015	Donald Trump will not win the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Prediction · 2015	Other
Resolved false	Prediction	2015	In all likelihood, Trump could not win the Republican nomination with only a plurality of votes or delegates, because the Republican Party would unite against him. Prediction · 2015	Other

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Nate Silver

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Prediction Other Political

“If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”

Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin)

If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

A strongly hedged, conditional prediction about earliest timing. 'Presumptive nominee' means a candidate whose remaining major rivals have withdrawn, or who has a projected majority of pledged delegates, as reported by AP or major outlets. If the conditions held (Trump did well, e.g. won or clearly led in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden had no disqualifying snafu): True if both Trump and Biden became presumptive nominees by 2024-02-29. Mostly false if one or both became presumptive only after February, however soon after. False if the conditions held but the nominations stayed seriously contested well beyond early spring. If only one of them became presumptive by end of February, that is mostly false. If the conditions did not hold, the conditional was not tested; judges should mark it unresolvable rather than true or false.

Evidence

Biden, Trump both become parties’ presumptive nominees KTVU · 12 March 2024
“President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump have now unofficially clinched their respective party’s nomination after securing enough delegates Tuesday night.”
2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Trump became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in American history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in the same election cycle.”
2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election.”
2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Despite calls to drop out, Haley declined to withdraw from the race after the primary.”

Reasoning

The condition was met: Trump won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which was held on January 23, 2024 (E2, E3). The evidence shows no snafu for Biden. However, Haley declined to withdraw after New Hampshire (E4). A report dated March 12, 2024 says Biden and Trump had "now" clinched their nominations by securing enough delegates that night (E1), so both became presumptive nominees after February rather than by February 29. Under the criteria, becoming presumptive soon after February counts as mostly false.

Cite this claim

Nate Silver, “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_e22962bb7fc7, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e22962bb7fc7

Claims without a verdict

Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nate Silver? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.