Scores by kind of claim
Each kind of claim is scored on its own, out of 100: the share that held up, with the range it likely falls in. Fewer resolved claims give a wider range.
-
Factual claims
Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
82 76 88 -
Predictions
Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
61 47 75 -
Promises
Commitments to the person's or organisation's own future action, with something to deliver: was it delivered?
67 46 85
All types combined: 77 (likely 72 to 82, high confidence), from 84 claims: 63 factual claims, 16 predictions, 5 promises. It mixes kinds of claim in different proportions for different people, so compare people kind by kind.
Nate Silver's claims
3 claims
| Verdict | Kind | Said | Claim | Topic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mostly false | Promise | 7 Nov 2024 | Silver said he would probably begin with college basketball Elo ratings, with a goal of launching by the end of 2024, if not sooner. Promise · 7 Nov 2024 | Their own work or organisation |
| Mostly false | Prediction | 8 Sep 2023 | Biden winning the 2024 presidential election is more likely than Trump winning, which is more likely than someone else winning. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 | Other |
| Mostly false | Prediction | 8 Sep 2023 | If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024. Prediction · 8 Sep 2023 | Other |
“If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire — and there’s no snafu for Biden — they could become their party’s presumptive nominees as soon as February”
Nate Silver, author of Silver Bulletin 8 September 2023 It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024 (Silver Bulletin)
If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.
Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
A strongly hedged, conditional prediction about earliest timing. 'Presumptive nominee' means a candidate whose remaining major rivals have withdrawn, or who has a projected majority of pledged delegates, as reported by AP or major outlets. If the conditions held (Trump did well, e.g. won or clearly led in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Biden had no disqualifying snafu): True if both Trump and Biden became presumptive nominees by 2024-02-29. Mostly false if one or both became presumptive only after February, however soon after. False if the conditions held but the nominations stayed seriously contested well beyond early spring. If only one of them became presumptive by end of February, that is mostly false. If the conditions did not hold, the conditional was not tested; judges should mark it unresolvable rather than true or false.
Evidence
- Biden, Trump both become parties’ presumptive nominees KTVU · 12 March 2024
“President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump have now unofficially clinched their respective party’s nomination after securing enough delegates Tuesday night.”
- 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Trump became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in American history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary in the same election cycle.”
- 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024,[1] as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election.”
- 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary - Wikipedia Wikipedia
“Despite calls to drop out, Haley declined to withdraw from the race after the primary.”
Reasoning
The condition was met: Trump won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which was held on January 23, 2024 (E2, E3). The evidence shows no snafu for Biden. However, Haley declined to withdraw after New Hampshire (E4). A report dated March 12, 2024 says Biden and Trump had "now" clinched their nominations by securing enough delegates that night (E1), so both became presumptive nominees after February rather than by February 29. Under the criteria, becoming presumptive soon after February counts as mostly false.
Cite this claim
Nate Silver, “If Trump does well in Iowa and New Hampshire and Biden has no snafu, Trump and Biden could become their parties' presumptive 2024 nominees as soon as February 2024.” (said 8 September 2023). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_e22962bb7fc7, method 0.1.0+28da144b. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_e22962bb7fc7
Claims without a verdict
Is a verdict here wrong, or do you speak for Nate Silver? Reply on the claim's own page, with the form at its foot (how replies work). Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts and scores are made.